Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.04% to 1.104 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 29(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The more prominent events this week still lie ahead, and the capital markets are trading accordingly. The rally that lifted the S&P 500 to new record highs yesterday carried over into Asia, where most equity markets rose, though China, Hong Kong, and South Korea were notable...
Read More »FX Daily, October 28: Politics Dominates Start of the Week before Yielding to Policy and Economics
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.24% to 1.104 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 28(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The pre-weekend rally in US shares, with the S&P 500 flirting with record highs and the back-up in US yields, set the tone for Asia Pacific trading earlier today. Nearly all the equity markets advanced, and bond yields rose. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 took a five-day advancing...
Read More »FX Daily, October 25: Limping into the Weekend both Fighting and Talking
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.02% to 1.1014 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 25(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Amazon and Intel earnings offered conflicting impulses for Asia Pacific equities, but Japanese, Chinese, Australian, and South Korean shares advanced. This will allow the regional MSCI benchmark to solidify its third consecutive weekly gain. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is little...
Read More »Cool Video: China Still Needs to Provide more Stimulus
The IMF projects that China will expand by less than 6% in 2020, but unless China provides more stimulus, it may be difficult to achieve. This is not only my view but also the view of Helen Qiao, the chief economist for Greater China at Bank of America. I was on the Bloomberg set with Alix Steele and Ms. Qiao earlier today. The PBOC passed on an opportunity to cut rates this week when it set the new Loan Prime Rate. Qiao says there is still a window for fresh action...
Read More »The Dollar-driven Cage Match: Xi vs Li in China With Nowhere Else To Go
China’s growing troubles go way back long before trade wars ever showed up. It was Euro$ #2 that set this course in motion, and then Euro$ #3 which proved the country’s helplessness. It proved it not just to anyone willing to honestly evaluate the situation, it also established the danger to one key faction of Chinese officials. The entire world slowed in 2012 following #2, but until the bottom of #3 it wasn’t really clear what that might mean. For a very long time,...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead Excluding Brexit
I feel a bit like the proverbial guy that asks, “Besides that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?” in trying to discuss the week ahead without knowing the results of the UK Parliament’s decision on the new deal negotiated between Prime Minister Johnson and the EU. I will write a separate note about Brexit before the Asian open. However, there are several other developments next week that will help shape the investment climate. Europe is front and center. Three...
Read More »FX Daily, October 18: Markets Becalmed Ahead of the Week
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.15% to 1.0999 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 18(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The global capital markets are ending the week on a subdued note as the UK Parliament decision on Saturday is awaited. The weaker Chinese Q3 GDP had little impact outside of China, where stocks fell over 1%. A brief suspension of hostilities by Turkey was sufficient for the US to lift...
Read More »China’s Dollar Problem Puts the Sync In Globally Synchronized Downturn
Because the prevailing theory behind the global slowdown is “trade wars”, most if not all attention is focused on China. While the correct target, everyone is coming it at from the wrong direction. The world awaits a crash in Chinese exports engineered by US tariffs. It’s not happening, at least according to China’s official statistics. The reported numbers aren’t good by any stretch, but they aren’t perhaps as bad as imagined by the constant references to what we...
Read More »FX Daily, October 15: Non-Disruptive Brexit Hopes Remain Elevated
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.16% to 1.0977 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Ideas that a Brexit deal may be close is helping to firm sterling, while soft Chinese PPI offset the spike in food prices to show the weakness of the world’s second-largest economy. Minutes from the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia earlier this month kept a door open to a...
Read More »FX Daily, October 14: Optimism Took the Weekend Off
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.16% to 1.0979 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Japanese and Canadian markets are on holiday today. While the US bond market is closed, equities maintain their regular hours today. Asia Pacific equities rallied, led by 1% of more gains in China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Thailand. The buying did not continue in Europe, and after a...
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