Tag Archives: capital flows

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.33% to 1.1024 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Yesterday’s new record highs in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial helped set the tone for today’s advance in the Asia Pacific region and Europe. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a two-day decline, with other major markets rising today. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 had edged to new...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.34% to 1.0547 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 2(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: After US stocks dropped more than 4% yesterday, investor sentiment has improved, apparently sparked by ideas that the pain will force oil producers to find a way to reduce supply. Oil prices have surged, with the May WTI contract rallying around 7%. Asia Pacific equities were mostly...

Over the past five sessions, the yen is the strongest of the major currencies, appreciating about 1.7% against the US dollar, eclipsing the Swedish krona, which rallied strongly today after the Riksbank’s surprise rate hike. Given the sell-off in equities and the decline in markets, the yen’s strength is not surprising. What was surprising though was the dollar’s resilience against the yen earlier this month as equities...

The US policy mix gets a privileged place in our understanding of what is the dollar. Tighter monetary policy and looser fiscal policy could be the closest thing to an elixir for currencies. It is the policy mix that the US is pursuing. The idea is that such a policy mixed draws capital inflows. This is exactly what is happening. The June TIC data was reported yesterday, and there was a net purchase of $114.5 bln of US...

Chinese officials do not seem to appreciate the extent of its isolation. The disruption from the US as Trump positions the US as a revisionist power-one that wants to alter the world order, which it was instrumental in constructing, may have obscured the fact that China’s practices are a source of frustration and animosity broadly and widely. Chinese officials do not seem to understand why Europe, for example, does not...

The combination of a falling dollar and rising US interest rates has sparked a concern never far from the surface about the foreign demand for US Treasuries. Moreover, as the Fed’s balance sheet shrinks, investors will have to step up their purchases. This Great Graphic was created by the Institute of International Finance (IIF). It is drawn from the US TIC data that tracks foreign holdings of US Treasuries. The most...

Summary: Japanese investors bought foreign bonds in the last week of March for the first time in nine weeks. Foreigners bought the most Japanese stocks since last April. The pain trade is for a break of JPY110. Japan’s Ministry of Finance reports portfolio flows on a weekly basis with a week lag. The data just reported covers the last week in March, as the Japanese  fiscal year was drawing to a close. Japanese...

The following observations are drawn from the weekly report of Japan’s Ministry of Finance unless noted otherwise.  We use the weekly data instead of monthly to identify changes of trend earlier.  We use simple convention of the week by the last rather than the first day. That means that the report for the week ending April 1 is the first week of April.  To smooth out the volatility, we will often refer to a four-week average. The latest MOF report was released earlier today.   1....