Tag Archives: Brexit

The political temperature is rising in the euro area. But in the short term at least, we believe political developments could actually boost sentiment Europe is facing a number of risk events amid a deteriorating political and social backdrop (see Table 1 below for the most important ones), including the ongoing migrant crisis, the Brexit referendum, the first review of Greece’s third bailout programme, and the prospects of new elections in Spain. There is no stable relationship between...

No one can feign surprise that the Bank of England kept policy steady.  Nor was the 9-0 vote truly surprising, though there had been some speculation of a couple of dovish dissents.  Nevertheless, there are two important takeaways for investors. First, the BOE recognized what many in the market have already accepted; namely that the economy has lost some momentum.  Growth for Q1 is estimated at 0.4%, which represents a some moderation.  Over the past four quarters, the UK has averaged...

A report by Open Europe argues that for the UK the cost of Brexit would be minor. The benefits might be minor as well. For interest groups could make it hard to reap the potential benefits of newly gained flexibility. … the path to prosperity outside the EU lies through: free trade and opening up to low cost competition, maintaining relatively high immigration (albeit with a different mix of skills), and pushing through deregulation and economic reforms in areas where the UK has...

We expect the UK to remain in the EU, but the risks are high. Opinion polls suggest a close result, and unless the gap widens markedly between the “Ins” and “Outs”, a prolonged period of uncertainty beckons. Moreover, in the event of Brexit, negotiations could go on for years. Having secured a deal at the European Council meeting on 19 February, PM David Cameron announced that the referendum on UK EU membership will be held on 23 June. Based on the reactions on both sides, it looks like...

The threat of secession has dogged both European governments and the region as a whole for the last four years. Greece has come perilously close to leaving the euro a number of times since 2012, Scottish voters rejected a proposition to leave the United Kingdom in 2014, and 80 percent of those who voted in Spain’s Catalonia region said they would like to be an independent state in a non-binding poll the same year. (Catalonian separatists plan another push for independence over the next 18...