Tag Archives: Brexit

SRF, Tagesgespräch, June 16, 2016. HTML with link to MP3. Half-hour-long interview on the Swiss news channel. Topics include monetary policy, exchange rates, financial stability, Brexit.

“The Swiss Franc was the strongest performer, EUR/CHF has fallen to 1.08 by 0.8%”. A spate of opinion polls showing a tilt toward Brexit, and the leading UK newspaper urging the Leave vote on the front page,  keep the global capital markets on edge.  Equities are lower, though of note ahead of the MSCI decision first thing Wednesday in Asia, Chinese shares eked out a small gain.  Core bond yields are 4-5 bp lower, which...

Swiss Franc Chandler is a bit puzzled about the Swiss Franc, that got stronger despite speculators being short CHF. We see weaker oil prices and weaker China as major reason, why sight deposits are falling and speculators are long the dollar. See the Dukascopy Video FX Rates The risk that the UK votes to leave the EU next week is the dominant force in the capital markets.  It is a continuation of what was seen at...

One of the most profound criticisms of the EU that it remains, even at this late date, primarily an elite project.  The democratic deficit has grown, according to the latest Pew Research multi-country poll. The Pew Research survey covered ten countries that represent 80% of the EU28 population and  82% of the region’s GDP.   The poll surveyed nearly 10.5k people between April 4 and May 12. It found that 2/3 of the both...

Many people understand politics and economics to be two different disciplines. I remember in graduate school more than two decades ago, many colleagues and professors operationally defined political economy as how politics, by which they meant the state, screws up economics. I spoke at the Fixed Income Leaders Summit earlier this week and teased that many seemed to think that politics comes from the ancient Greek “poly”...

Philippe Ferreira, Senior Strategist bei Lyxor. Die Unsicherheit bezüglich des Brexits führte dazu, dass zahlreiche europäische L/S-Equity-Manager sich dazu entschlossen haben, ihr Engagement in britischen Anlagen vor der Abstimmung deutlich zu vermindern, erklärt Philippe Ferreira, Senior Strategist bei Lyxor. In den vergangenen Wochen behielten Hedgefonds weitgehend eine defensive...

From The Economist’s Graphic detail:

This posts shows again the stupidity of the financial media, that mixes up assets and liabilities for central banks.SNB FX reserves are assets. They are in different foreign currencies and subject to the valuation effect of these currencies.Our weekly sight deposits report show the liabilities. They are measured in Swiss franc and therefore not subject to valuation effects. They are the only way to measure...

Brexit Predict This Great Graphic shows the price people are willing to pay to bet that the UK votes to leave the EU at the June 23 referendum on the PredictIt events markets.   We included the lower chart to give some sense of volume of activity on this wager in this event market. Brexit predict – click to enlarge. Presently, one would have to wager 42 cents to win a dollar if the UK votes to leave.  On May 23,...

From the FT.