Even in the fast-changing world of foreign exchange, investors have been able to count on one thing for the last two years – that the interest rate policies of central banks would be the primary driver of currency movements. The so-called divergence trade hinged on the Federal Reserve’s tightening bias relative to the easing bias of the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan and was a fairly reliable organizing principle for foreign-exchange investors. On a trade-weighted basis, the...
Read More »The Global Run On Physical Cash Has Begun: Why It Pays To Panic First
Back in August 2012, when negative interest rates were still merely viewed as sheer monetary lunacy instead of pervasive global monetary reality that has pushed over $6 trillion in global bonds into negative yield territory, the NY Fed mused hypothetically about negative rates and wrote "Be Careful What You Wish For" saying that "if rates go negative, the U.S. Treasury Department’s Bureau of Engraving and Printing will likely be called upon to print a lot more currency as individuals and...
Read More »Central Banks Shiny New Tool: Cash-Escape-Inhibitors
Submitted by JP Koning via Moneyness blog, Negative interests rates are the shiny new thing that everyone wants to talk about. I hate to ruin a good plot line, but they're actually kind of boring; just conventional monetary policy except in negative rate space. Same old tool, different sign. What about the tiering mechanisms that have been introduced by the Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank, and Danmarks Nationalbank? Aren't they new? The SNB, for instance, provides an exemption...
Read More »Central Banks Shiny New Tool: Cash-Escape-Inhibitors
Submitted by JP Koning via Moneyness blog, Negative interests rates are the shiny new thing that everyone wants to talk about. I hate to ruin a good plot line, but they're actually kind of boring; just conventional monetary policy except in negative rate space. Same old tool, different sign. What about the tiering mechanisms that have been introduced by the Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank, and Danmarks Nationalbank? Aren't they new? The SNB, for instance, provides an exemption...
Read More »Are Central Banks Setting Each Other Up?
Authored by Mark St.Cyr, There are times you try to connect the dots. There are others where those connections warrant adorning your trusted tin-foiled cap of choice; for you just can’t get there unless you do. This I believe is one of those times. And if correct? What at first might appear apocryphal, may in fact, be down right apocalyptic. And besides, what good is a tin-foil capped conspiracy theory anyhow if it doesn’t have the potential for doom, correct? So, with that in mind, let’s...
Read More »Are Central Banks Setting Each Other Up?
There are times you try to connect the dots. There are others where those connections warrant adorning your trusted tin-foiled cap of choice; for you just can’t get there unless you do. This I believe is one of those times. And if correct? What at first might appear apocryphal, may in fact, be down right apocalyptic. And besides, what good is a tin-foil capped conspiracy theory anyhow if it doesn’t have the potential for doom, correct? So, with that in mind, let’s venture down some roads...
Read More »Are Central Banks Running Out of Steam?
In the old days, before the world was awash in capital with nowhere to go, an announcement of monetary easing was generally considered a good thing, a sign that central bankers were on the job. Historically, in all but the most extreme circumstances, lower interest rates have tended to spur economic activity, with the contemporaneous effect of supporting risky assets. But we are clearly living in an extreme circumstance, and after eight years of such announcements from central banks, it’s...
Read More »How Low Can The Bank Of Japan Cut Rates? Ask Gold
As we noted last night, in what was the second clear example of sheer desperation by the Bank of Japan, the central banker formerly known as Peter Pan for his on the record belief that "he should fly", and as of this morning better known as Peter Panic, desperately tried to pull of his best "Draghi", up to and even stealing the ECB's trademark catch phrase, to wit: KURODA: POSSIBLE TO CUT NEGATIVE RATE FURTHER IF NEEDED KURODA: NO LIMIT TO MONETARY EASING MEASURES KURODA: WILL EXPAND EASING...
Read More »3.3. FAQ: The Why and What For of BOJ’s Negative Interest Rates
The Bank of Japan surprised investors last week by introducing negative interest rates. At the World Economic Forum in Davos a couple weeks ago, BOJ Governor Kuroda appeared to deny that such a move was under consideration. The market's focus, like ours, was on the pace by which it was expanding its balance sheet (JPY80 trillion a year). The FAQ format may be the most effective way to explain what the BOJ did, why and the implications for investors. What did the Bank of Japan do? ...
Read More »3.3. FAQ: The Why and What For of BOJ’s Negative Interest Rates
The Bank of Japan surprised investors last week by introducing negative interest rates. At the World Economic Forum in Davos a couple weeks ago, BOJ Governor Kuroda appeared to deny that such a move was under consideration. The market's focus, like ours, was on the pace by which it was expanding its balance sheet (JPY80 trillion a year). The FAQ format may be the most effective way to explain what the BOJ did, why and the implications for investors. What did the Bank of Japan do? ...
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