Tag Archives: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

“Capitalism” is not the same as “Corporatism.” Yet, whenever you mention capitalism, there is palpable anger arising from a fundamental widespread misbelief. “‘Evil’ corporations are greedy and take advantage of the system for their benefit.” I have two words for you – “No S***.” Such does not mean capitalism has become “broken.” On the contrary, capitalism created the opportunity for corporations to exist. Things went wrong when corporations took advantage of the...

Last weekend, I joined Richard Rosso, CFP and Danny Ratliff, CFP to discuss the outlook for the markets for the rest of this year and take questions from our attendees. We cover a lot of ground from: The financial markets now and what to expect.  Valuations Inflation outlook. The dollar. Why Government actions are destroying the foundation of capitalism. Plus some interesting questions on  Why you shouldn’t put real estate in a tax-deferred account. Better ways to...

Taper Is Coming: Got Bonds? The solid economic recovery and easing of COVID restrictions lead us to believe a tapering of QE may not be far off. Further supporting our opinion, inflation has fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels, and employment is improving rapidly. On top of that are whispers from within the Fed questioning financial stability given extreme asset valuations driven to some degree by excessive QE. Most importantly, various Fed members are starting to...

“The strong economic recovery will not get interrupted by inflation or a credit crunch, and the market will soon reach 4,500.” – Ed Yardeni via Advisor Perspectives After discussing BofA’s view of why the market could drop to 3800,  I thought it fair to discuss a more optimistic view. BofA’s view of a market correction was a function of the more exuberant “optimism” in the market. To wit: “This analysis is interesting, particularly when analysts are rushing to...

“If everyone sees it, is it still a bubble?” That was a great question I got over the weekend. As a “contrarian” investor, it is usually when “everyone” is talking about an event; it doesn’t happen. As Mark Hulbert noted recently, “everyone” is worrying about a “bubble” in the stock market. To wit: “To appreciate how widespread current concern about a bubble is, consider the accompanying chart of data from Google Trends. It plots the relative frequency of Google...

Are stocks “cheap,” or is this just another bullish “rationalization.” Such was the suggestion by the consistently bullish Brian Wesbury of First Trust in a research note entitled “Yes, Stocks Are Cheap.” To wit: “The Fed remains highly accommodative, there are trillions of dollars of cash on the sidelines, vaccines have reached over 50% of Americans, and the economy is expanding rapidly. Some valuations have been stretched, but the market as a whole remains...

In this issue of “All Inflation Is Transitory, The Fed WIll Be Late Again.“ Market Review And Update All Inflation Is Temporary The Fed Should Be Hiking Now Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: No. Bonds Aren’t Overvalued. Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Catch Up On What You Missed Last Week   Market Review & Update Last week, we said: “The market is trading well into...

Does Bitcoin Fix Defi (Definancialization)? “Bitcoin fixes this.” I cringe every time I see this popular meme. I find it worse than nails on a chalkboard. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies (crypto) supporters seem to wheel this tired trope out for every problem they see, particularly at economic ones. To their credit, they genuinely want to fix the financial system’s problems. I do too! However, crypto’s supporters have their subjects completely reversed. To be...

The Battle Royale: Stocks vs. Bonds. The S&P 500 is at valuations higher than those in 1929 and rival those of 1999. Despite a recession, the index is 25% above where it was trading before the pandemic. The equity stampede is undoubtedly bullish about corporate earnings prospects and, by default, economic growth. As the stock bulls party, bond investors are glum about future economic prospects. Bond yields are below where they were before the pandemic started....

Lacy Hunt at Hoisington Management has some interesting thoughts regarding the inflation debate and the potential for decelerating inflation. Case For Decelerating Inflation In its Quarterly Review and Outlook for the First Quarter of 2021 Lacy Hunt makes a case for decelerating inflation. Contrary to conventional wisdom, disinflation is more likely than accelerating inflation. Since prices deflated in the second quarter of 2020, the annual inflation rate will move...