Tag Archives: 4) FX Trends

The US dollar turned in a solid week's performance, rising against most currencies and recording a marginal new high for the year against the euro.  Sterling and the Australian dollar competed for the worst performer.  Both central banks pushed against market expectations for aggressive near-term tightening. The central banks trigger a short squeeze in the bond market, where 10-year benchmark yields from 10 bp in the US to 34 bp in Italy.  UK 10-year Gilts and...

The US dollar turned in a mixed performance last week but ended on a solid note.  The pre-weekend and month-end activity may have exaggerated the greenback's gains, but we suspect ahead of the FOMC meeting and the US jobs data that is the direction. Our understanding of the technical condition also favors a stronger dollar. The jump in Australian rates may help explain why the Aussie was the strongest of the majors (~0.75%).  However, the trajectory of monetary...

Overview:  The global capital markets give little indication of the important economic and earnings data that lie ahead this week.  There is an eerie calm. Equities in Asia were mixed.  Japan and Hong Kong, and most small bourses were lower.  Last week, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained almost 0.9%. Europe's Stoxx 600 is little changed after rising about 0.5% last week. US futures are firm.  The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials reached record-highs before the...

Rising yields and record highs in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ failed to lift the dollar.  Indeed, the greenback fell against all the major currencies, even the Japanese yen, against which it had reached new four-year highs (~JPY114.70) before pulling back.  On the other hand, the Antipodean currencies and the Norwegian krone continued to lead the move against the US dollar. The Aussie rose to new three-month highs, while the Kiwi, Nokkie, and Canadian dollar saw...

Overview: After a couple of sessions of taking on more risk, investors are taking a break today.  Equities are mostly lower today after the S&P 500's six-day advance took it almost to its record high, while the NASDAQ's streak was halted at five sessions.  The Nikkei's nearly 1.8% slide paced the Asia-Pacific session, where most bourses retreated.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off about 0.15% near midday after rising approximately 0.65% over the past two...

Overview: The markets lack a clear direction today and await fresh incentives.  After gaining almost 1% yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped.  Japan, Hong Kong, and Australia are among the few equity markets that rose.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is posting minor gains, while US futures are largely steady.   The S&P 500 and NASDAQ have a five-day advancing streak in tow.  The US 10-year yield reached a five-month high near 1.64% yesterday and extended to...

Overview:  While equities and bonds are firmer, it is the dollar's sell-off that stands out today.  The greenback has retreated broadly.    The euro is trading above the previous week's high for the first time in over a month, and the dollar was pushed back below JPY114.00 in early European turnover. The Chinese yuan is at four-month highs. The Antipodean and Scandi currencies are leading the move against the dollar among the major currencies. The JP Morgan Emerging...

The Antipodeans and the Scandis led last week's move against the dollar, registering more than 1% gains.  The yen was the weakest of the major currencies, falling almost 1.75%, its worst week since March 2020.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index initially declined to a new low for the year before recovering to snap a five-week slide and gain nearly 0.45%. Despite the six basis point gain ahead of the weekend, perhaps helped by a stronger-than-expected...

In assessing the trajectory of Fed policy the market is discounting, we prefer using the Fed funds futures contracts over the Eurodollar futures.  The Fed funds settle at the average effective rate, while the Eurodollar futures contracts are three-month deposit rates.  The Fed funds futures seem to be implying aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve, which as of less than a month ago, half of whom did not expect a rate hike would be appropriate next year.  The...

Overview: The US dollar is trading with a lower bias ahead of the September CPI report due early in the North American session. Long-term yields softened yesterday and slipped further today, leaving the US 10-year yield near 1.56%.  European benchmark yields are 3-4 bp lower. The shorter-end of the US coupon curve, the two-year yield is firmer. Equities are enjoying a slightly better tone, though Japan, Taiwan, and Australia’s markets traded heavily in the Asia...