120 UHNWI guests from around the world gathered in London on November 30, 2016 for the 18th Credit Suisse Salon on the topic Can Europe reinvent itself? Consequences for the global economy. The event was hosted by Tidjane Thiam, Chief Executive Officer of Credit Suisse Group AG. The day commenced with the Salon Members' Luncheon hosted by Thomas Gottstein, Chief Executive Officer, Credit Suisse (Switzerland) Ltd on Impact of the US election on the global investment horizon. Panelist Dr. David Mulford, former US Ambassador to India and Vice Chairman International, Credit Suisse, was quite upbeat on the overall outlook for economic growth and industry while Jonathan Tepperman, Managing Editor, Foreign Affairs magazine, expressed his worry that a great degree of uncertainty has now been injected into the system. The 3rd panelist, Credit Suisse economist Dr. Santitarn Sathirathai, felt the results would further accelerate China's pivot towards Asia. After a vigorous debate among the panelists and a lengthy Q&A with the audience, moderator and Credit Suisse Senior Advisor Bob Parker outlined a few investment themes and observed that in the course of the conversation, the dial had moved from "uncertainty" to "some certainty" on what to expect in the next years.
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120 UHNWI guests from around the world gathered in London on November 30, 2016 for the 18th Credit Suisse Salon on the topic Can Europe reinvent itself? Consequences for the global economy. The event was hosted by Tidjane Thiam, Chief Executive Officer of Credit Suisse Group AG.
The day commenced with the Salon Members' Luncheon hosted by Thomas Gottstein, Chief Executive Officer, Credit Suisse (Switzerland) Ltd on Impact of the US election on the global investment horizon.
Panelist Dr. David Mulford, former US Ambassador to India and Vice Chairman International, Credit Suisse, was quite upbeat on the overall outlook for economic growth and industry while Jonathan Tepperman, Managing Editor, Foreign Affairs magazine, expressed his worry that a great degree of uncertainty has now been injected into the system. The 3rd panelist, Credit Suisse economist Dr. Santitarn Sathirathai, felt the results would further accelerate China's pivot towards Asia.
After a vigorous debate among the panelists and a lengthy Q&A with the audience, moderator and Credit Suisse Senior Advisor Bob Parker outlined a few investment themes and observed that in the course of the conversation, the dial had moved from "uncertainty" to "some certainty" on what to expect in the next years.
The idea of Europe is worth defending
In the evening, a panel comprising former UK Prime Minister Sir John Major, former President of the European Commission and ex-Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi, and former IMF Chief Economist Dr. Olivier Blanchard explored the different issues confronting Europe and its prospects in the short to medium term.
Moderator Michael O'Sullivan, Chief Investment Officer, International Wealth Management, set the stage with his four-point agenda on how Europe could be made "great again". He outlined that the EU's Constitution needs to be streamlined, its economic and financial architecture (especially of the Eurozone) should be harmonized, public life in Europe needs to be revitalized, and the security and foreign policy of the EU must be more unified.
Sir John said the problem with the reform of Europe is not what ought to be done but can it be done given the prevailing political mood. He expressed confidence that the public mood will become less sour only on the pre-condition that the EU starts to show real growth.
Mr. Prodi felt that Europe will be forced to find its way back especially with the changes in the USA and the rise of China, and strongly advocated that Germany should lead the way – "it is no longer a leader, it is the leader."
"The next logical step should be greater political and fiscal integration," opined Dr. Blanchard but rued that nobody wants it currently and felt that a flexible approach would be the best solution now. He lauded the creation of the European Union as a historic achievement "which is now perceived as a boring construction, a bit like social security."
What stood out in the discussion was the degree of alignment in the panelists' opinions – they agreed that the current outlook is bleak and that politics will get come in the way of sensible decisions right now, but were firm in their belief that the European Union will not be undone and that the reaction to a "wrong decision (Brexit)" should not be another "wrong decision". It will correct its course in the medium to long term – but only contingent on growth taking off. To quote Sir John, the European Union is "a noble project which has gone a little off the rails" but "the idea of Europe is worth defending."