SNB & CHF

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially...

Die Ökonomen der Zürcher Kantonalbank (ZKB) rechnen nach dem überraschenden Kurswechsel der SNB für das laufende Jahr und für das kommende Jahr mit einem geringeren Wachstum der Schweizer Wirtschaft als bis anhin. Neu wird für 2022 mit einem Wachstum des Bruttoinlandprodukts (BIP) von 2,7 Prozent nach bisher 3,0 Prozent gerechnet und für 2023 mit einem solchen von 1,5 Prozent nach 1,7 Prozent, wie aus einer am Dienstag veröffentlichten Publikation hervorgeht....

Every forecast or guess has one refreshing quality: one will be right and the rest will be wrong. What’s the difference between a forecast and a guess? On one level, the answer is “none”: the future is unknown and even the most informed forecast is still a guess. The evidence for this is the remarkable number of informed forecasts that prove to be as completely off-base as the wildest guesses. On another level, there is a big difference between an informed forecast...

With the acknowledged national debt now a politically and economically unpayable $30 trillion (in reality, its unfunded liabilities are far greater), Americans should start to become acclimated to the realities of the United States’ eventual, inevitable default. While it may seem unfathomable, and the results too catastrophic to imagine, in fact the likely damage to everyday Americans would be minimal in the short term and unquestionably a net plus in the long term....

Last year Congress officially declared Juneteenth a federal holiday. While Very Serious talking heads attempted desperately to convince those that would listen that Juneteenth was a long-celebrated American holiday, the reality is that it was largely unknown around the nation prior to congressional action. The episode is a useful illustration of how the state weaponizes secular holidays to promote a larger cultural agenda. Prior to nationwide riots in 2020,...

What I, Max Sirius, think the Powers That Be or Deep State (which includes the Federal Reserve, the Biden Administration) or whatever you want to call it or them, want and will do now. Very big picture view. In order to save the global economic system, which is still more or less controlled by the United States, has the United States Dollar as its reserve currency, and which many of the United States based but globally acting mega corporations operate in and profit from (many big United...

Nach dem spektakulären Absturz in der letzten Woche, verlor der BTC zum Wochenende nochmals und stürzte sogar unter die Marke von 20K. Auf Google wurden darauf Höchstwerte für den Suchbegriff „Bitcoin is Dead“ registriert. Doch ist der BTC wirklich tot? Bitcoin News: „Bitcoin is Dead“ mit neuem Spitzenwert in Google SucheGegen Samstag kam es zum Jahrestiefstwert mit nur noch 17.700 US-Dollar pro BTC. Viele Kritiker hatten sich bestätigt gefühlt, als der Markt in den...

Overview: Stocks are rallying. Nearly all the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region rose with China being the noted exception. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up over 1% to post gains for the third consecutive session, the longest advance this month. US futures are up around 2% as they return from yesterday’s holiday. While the US 10-year yield has edged up 3.26%, European yields are mostly softer, with the peripheral premiums falling more than core rates. The US...

In Switzerland, all able-bodied men complete compulsory military service, while others opt for a civilian service. But how useful is a conscript army in light of what Russia did to Ukraine? This is one of many questions SWI readers sent to us. Daniel Reist, head of media relations for the Swiss armed forces, takes a shot at answering them. Our first question is can a small army be effective? More questions and answers are to follow in the coming weeks. --- swissinfo.ch is the...

‘You don’t have dozens and dozens of people employed on your Russia desks if you are not making money in Russia,’ says one senior private banker in Switzerland Keystone / Yuri Kochetkov January used to be a big month for Swiss bankers and their Russian clients. Many of the Moscow elite had made a tradition of coming to the Alps for the orthodox new year, skiing with their families, then catching up with their financial consiglieri. In St Moritz, one banker recalls...