SNB & CHF

The recovery of US shares and oil yesterday provided short-lived.  Asian shares were dragged lower with the help of Chinese equities.  The 3.5% fall in the Shanghai Composite today brings the year-to-date decline to a little more than 18%. Taiwan, which goes to the polls this weekend ( the opposition that has been critical of the government's pro-China policy is ahead) bucked the trend to post minor gains. European shares are also moving lower, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 off more than...

The US stock market and the oil market appear joined at the hip. The Great Graphic here, created on Bloomberg, shows the correlation of the two markets.  It is near 0.77, which is the highest since September 2013.   The correlation was conducted on the level of the S&P 500 and the level of the front-month light sweet crude oil futures contract.  It tells us that the two markets have been moving in the same direction nearly eight of ten sessions over the past 60 sessions.   As the...

Speculation is mounting that the Bank of Canada will be the first major central bank to cut rates this year.  It meets on January 20.  The combination of the drop in oil prices (40% since mid-October) and the erosion of the business outlook has boosted the risk of a cut next week.   The bitumen from Canada's oil sands, which is a type of crude oil, reached a low of nearly $8 earlier this week, which is a tenth of its from two years ago. Indicative pricing in the derivatives markets...

Vacherin Mont-d’Or is a Swiss speciality. But producing the cheese is not without its challenges. (SRF/swissinfo.ch) Vacherin Mont-d’Or is a seasonal cheese made from cow’s milk. It is produced in different variations, both in France and in Switzerland, in the Jura region at the border between the two countries. This type of Vacherin is produced by a handful of producers in the French-speaking canton of Vaud, between autumn and spring. A slightly soft cheese with an ripple-effect outer...

Countless actors – professional and amateur – have played William Tell over the past 200 years. Yet the man millions of people around the world knew as the Swiss hero was actually British. At the invitation of swissinfo.ch, in 2004 Conrad Phillips paid his first visit to Switzerland. (Michele Andina, swissinfo.ch) --- swissinfo.ch is the international branch of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC). Its role is to report on Switzerland and to provide a Swiss perspective on international...

Investors still have not found solid footing this year.  Equity markets have continued to sink, even though China's equities advanced.  Bond markets are mostly firmer, with the US 10-year yield seemingly being drawn back toward 2.0%.  Oil prices are little changed, after Brent slipped to marginal new lows.   There is much talk about the Iranian sanctions being lifted as early as Monday. The US dollar itself is mixed.  The yuan weakened about 0.25%.  The renewed pressure so new widening...

Sterling fell 4.25% from the high on December 28 to yesterday.  It has been confined to yesterday's range today.   After finishing below the lower Bollinger Band yesterday, it has moved back into the band today.  The Bank of England meets tomorrow.  It is way to early to seriously look for a change in policy.  At most, MPC member McCafferty may abandon his formal call (dissent) for an immediate rate hike.    He has done this before.  We suspect if the hawk does rejoin the majority, it has...

Since the initial spike higher when the BOJ provided some operational tweaks to its asset purchase program on December 18, the dollar has fallen 5.6% against the yen through Tuesday's low near JPY116.70.  We had warned that the break of JPY120 would spur a move to JPY118, and the move below JPY118 targeted the August low near JPY116.20.  While the euro often carves out a bottom, the dollar's lows against the yen are frequently characterized by spikes.  That was the case, for example in...

Many of the capital markets are enjoying reversals today.  Equity markets are mostly higher. The MSCI Emerging Market equity index is up more than 1%. Several key commodities, like oil and copper, are firmer.  Bond markets, outside the US, are firmer, with the Japan's 10-year yield slipping to new record lows slightly below 20 bp.   The dollar is mixed, as the dollar-bloc currencies firm, as are most of the freely traded emerging market currencies, with the beleaguered South African rand...