Perspectives Pictet

Second-quarter results were well above estimates, but average earnings surprises were modest in the US and consensus estimates for 2018 have stalled.The Q2 2017 reporting season demonstrated that corporate results dynamics remain robust across developed economies. Sales and profit figures came in well above estimates in the US, Europe and Japan. The trend for profit growth has sustained equity markets’ total returns year to date. But due to the weakness of the US currency, returns in that...

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The first estimate for GDP in the second quarter surprised on the upside, pushing us to revise our full-year forecast. But we still believe the Bank of Japan will stick to current monetary policy.The first estimate of Japan’s Q2 GDP showed growth of 1.0% quarter over quarter (q-o-q) in real terms, or 4.0% annualised, beating the consensus estimates (1.6% annualised) by a wide margin. We have therefore decided to revise up our 2017 GDP forecast for Japan to 1.9% from 1.3%.Unlike previous...

Flash PMI suggests GDP growth may cool slightly in the third quarter, but dynamics of the euro area economy remain strong and broadly stable.Markit’s composite flash purchasing managers index (PMI) for the euro area remained broadly stable at 55.8 in August, slightly above consensus expectations (55.5). By sector, the manufacturing PMI increased to 57.4, from 56.6 in July, offsetting a decline in the services PMI (-0.5 points to 54.9).The euro area composite PMI is now consistent with GDP...

In spite of dilemma, we still think the Fed will announce plans to shrink balance sheet in September and will hike rates again in December.Several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, and a few foreign central bankers, will meet for their traditional August gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on 24–26 August. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will give the opening speech on Friday (08:00 local time, 16:00 Geneva), but with neither a Q&A session, nor a scheduled media briefing. Unlike her predecessor,...

Published: Monday August 21 2017A former hacker has become a neuroscientist whose research into the human brain is revealing how memory works, the meaning of dreams and the role of the subconscious in making decisions and shaping human behaviour.Professor Moran Cerf began his career in the Israeli military intelligence as a professional hacker. After four years in the army, he set up a company to use his skills commercially, working for companies and government organisations to help find...

Tensions over North Korea’s nuclear programme look set to continue, but we believe the chances of a military conflict are low in the near term.The tensions between North Korea and the US that rose a notch in early August are rooted in the deep sense of insecurity of the regime of Kim Jong Un. A significant new stage in North Korea’s nuclear programme has now been reached, and the regime appears to believe that developing a credible nuclear deterrent is necessary to guarantee its...

Tensions over North Korea’s nuclear programme look set to continue, but we believe the chances of a military conflict are low in the near term.The tensions between North Korea and the US that rose a notch in early August are rooted in the deep sense of insecurity of the regime of Kim Jong Un. A significant new stage in North Korea’s nuclear programme has now been reached, and the regime appears to believe that developing a credible nuclear deterrent is necessary to guarantee its...

Published: Wednesday August 16 2017HackerOne’s network of more than 100,000 ethical hackers can help online organisations eradicate vulnerabilities in their internet systems that could be exploited by criminals, says Mårten Mickos, its Chief Executive OfficerBarely a month goes by without reports of large companies and government bodies suffering cyber-attacks by criminal hackers and other hostile organisations. A USD92 billion cyber-security industry has grown up which tries to fend off...

Digitalisation offers huge new opportunities and improved growth, margins and valuations for some industrial firms, but will also create losers as traditional machinery sales decline.Amid a growing challenge from the emerging world, US and European industrial companies must be at the forefront of technological innovation to stay competitive. With the fourth industrial revolution, a new industrial era is opening up: digitisation. The fields of application of digitisation are vast, covering...