Dirk Niepelt

CEPR Discussion Paper 18291 and SNB Working Paper 3/2023, July 2023. HTML, PDF (local copy CEPR, local copy SNB). We analyze the effect of structural change in the payment sector and of monetary policy on prices. Means of payment are obtained through portfolio choices and commodity sales and “liquified” through velocity choices. Interest rates, intermediation margins, and costs of payment instrument use affect portfolios, velocities, liquidity, relative prices, and the aggregate price...

Neue Zürcher Zeitung, July 5, 2023. PDF. HTML. Ein digitaler Euro könnte den Wettbewerb fördern, mehr Transparenz schaffen und das Too-big-to-fail-Problem entschärfen. Mit ihrer Minimalvariante aber priorisiert die EZB das Ziel der Bewahrung des Status quo im Bankensystem.

SUERF Policy Brief 612, June 2023. HTML, PDF. Executive summary: The ECB’s first two progress reports on the digital euro clarify the project teams’ considerations. Some motivations for a digital euro remain vague, some fundamental tradeoffs receive limited attention. Most importantly, the reports lack an analysis of why digital euro holdings as stores of value are not desirable and whether strategies to limit such holdings cause collateral damage. Against that backdrop some of the design...

Echo der Zeit, SRF, 12 May 2023. HTML with link to audio file. Implications of capital injections and liquidity assistance for the federal government, the SNB, and Switzerland.

European Parliament, April 2023. PDF. Executive summary: The two progress reports provide an insightful overview over some of the thinking underlying the digital euro project. The reports remain vague in some respects, which is not surprising given the early stage of the project and the division of tasks between the ECB and the Commission. The first report suggests that the digital euro can help preserve public money as the anchor of the payment system, but it does not explain how the...

The Economist refers to our work in the `Free Exchange’ section: But some argue banks would work fine if the public switched their deposits for central-bank digital currencies, so long as the central bank stepped in to replace the lost funding. “The issuance of [such currencies] would simply render the central bank’s implicit lender-of-last-resort guarantee explicit,” wrote Markus Brunnermeier and Dirk Niepelt in 2019. This scenario seems to have partly materialised since the failure...

Recall this post from six years ago. Òscar Jordà, Björn Richter, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor suggest that higher bank capital ratios help stabilize the financial system ex post but not ex ante, and that illiquidity breeds fragility.

With its annual report from a few weeks ago the SNB communicated minor changes in its monetary policy strategy (p. 24): The review of the monetary policy strategy showed that it has fundamentally proved its worth. There was no need to adjust the first two elements, namely the definition of price stability and the conditional inflation forecast. The strategy has enabled the SNB to fulfil its mandate of price stability well, despite repeated strong external shocks in recent years. The...

Neue Zürcher Zeitung, March 22, 2023. PDF. How to respond? Nationalization now rather than later? Breaking UBS up? Placing government representatives on the supervisory board? Illiquidity crises and the lender of last resort. Vollgeld, higher reserve requirements, and CBDC as partial solutions to TBTF problems.

Swiss Banking proposes a “Deposit Token,” New Money for Switzerland. This white paper focuses on the question of how banks can best support the Swiss economy when it comes to settling transactions in digital assets and executing payments in a digitalised economy. As the digital transformation sweeps through the economy and society at large, it requires support from efficient, generally accepted and secure means of payment. Against this background and considering developments such as the...