SNB & CHF

The heart of economic growth is an expanding subsistence fund, or the pool of real savings. This pool, which is composed of final consumer goods, sustains individuals in the various stages of the production process. The increase in the pool of real savings permits the expansion and the enhancement of the infrastructure, and this strengthens economic growth. An increase in economic growth for a given stock of money implies more goods per unit of money. This means that...

Overview: Don't fight the Fed went the manta as the market took the US two-year yield back up to 4.50% in the aftermath of the FOMC minutes last week, the highest in over a month. The minutes warned of a premature easing of financial conditions. And then bam, softer than expected hourly earnings and a weak service PMI and bonds and stocks rallied, and the dollar was sold. This is a key part of the backdrop for this week, for which several Fed officials will speak,...

Inflation rates are continuing to rise across the globe, with the UK arguably leading this trend. More specifically, the UK inflation rate hit 10.7% in November, and while it dipped slightly from a peak of 11.1% in October, it remained considerably higher than the Bank of England’s target of 2%. This is impacting the cost of energy and food items markedly, creating a cost-of-living crisis as inflation continues to outstrip earnings across multiple industries. With...

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Introduction The success of a business organization depends, to quite an extent, on the planning of resources. This planning keeps the business way above others. Budgeting, therefore, becomes a critical aspect of accounting. However, please keep in mind that financial planning in business is steeped in challenges because of the economic turmoil. Do you run your own small business? If yes, then you count yourself among the 99% of small and medium businesses run in...

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has posted an annual loss of CHF132 billion ($143 billion) for 2022, the biggest in its 115-year history. “The loss on foreign currency positions amounted to around CHF131 billion and the loss on Swiss franc positions was around CHF1 billion. A valuation gain of CHF400 million was recorded on gold holdings,” the SNB said in a statement on Monday. The 2022 loss means the SNB will not make its usual payout to the Swiss federal and cantonal...

Data centres are expanding rapidly in Switzerland, with such facilities already accounting for 4% of national energy – more than the farming sector. The SonntagsZeitung reports that Switzerland is now home to 86 data centres, and only Netherlands has a higher rate per capita in Europe. The paper cites a 2021 study by the Lucerne University of Applied Sciences and Arts estimating that the energy usage of Swiss data centres will double in the next five years,...

What’s your outlook for this year? I’ve heard that question repeatedly over the last month and if you’re reading this hoping I’ll let you have a peak at my crystal ball, you’re going to be disappointed. Because I don’t have a crystal ball and neither, I hasten to add, does anyone else in this business. So, no, I don’t know what’s going to happen this year. I do know what the consensus view is, what the majority expects to happen, and that may be more useful. Because...

The 'soft landing' is on the table at NYSE. December payroll data kept the hope alive. But is it really? Growing weight of evidence - not to mention totally different interpretation of same across many other markets - strongly implies it isn't. We discuss how or maybe when share prices realize the difference. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com...

We have been torn between our conviction that the dollar’s cyclical rally ended last September-October, and the near-term momentum indicators that warned that the dollar’s pullback was overdone. Aside from the Japanese yen, a consolidative phase dominated December, but the momentum indicators still seemed to suggest upside potential dollar. A proper correction appeared to have begun in the days leading up to the US jobs report. While we correctly anticipated a “buy...