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Articles by EconMatters

Video: The Swiss National Bank Is Acting Like A Hedge Fund

February 26, 2017

By EconMatters

In this Video, we discuss the fact that Central Banks have basically morphed into Hedge Funds with similar risky investing strategies, except they buy without any regard to the underlying fundamentals of the assets they are buying. When did the Swiss Citizens say it was the proper role for the Swiss National Bank to be buying US Stocks? How is this stimulating the Swiss Economy? Central Banks have really gone off the rails with regards to their Monetary Policy Tools.
This is clearly exemplified in what the Swiss National Bank is currently doing in financial markets, these bizarre overstretch of policies put the entire financial system at risk, and have resulted in massive stock market bubbles around the world. These Central Banks are not even investing based upon company fundamentals, just trying to square account imbalances in what has become the race to the bottom in the Currency Wars! We need to start having hearings on these matters because Central Banks have morphed into Risky Hedge Funds, well beyond their intended purpose of managing interest rates in the course of normal business cycles.

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Interest Rate Differentials Increasing Financial Market Leverage To Unsustainable Levels

February 25, 2017

We discuss the rate differentials between Switzerland, Britain, Europe, Japan and the United States and how this Developed Financial Markets carry trade is incentivizing excessive risk taking with tremendous leverage and destabilizing the entire financial system in the process in this video. You want to know what is behind weekly market records, borrowed money via punchbowl central bank liquidity. This ends badly every time Central Banks. You can run this model 1 Million iterations, and it plays out the same way, the financial bubble implodes in on itself where liquidity evaporates into nothingness. It is ironic that when the bubble pops, given all the Central Bank infused liquidity to create this bubble paradigm, that all liquidity dries up, and all the sudden there is no real liquidity at all in the system when everyone direly needs it!

 European Central Bank

European Central Bank Interest Rates – March 2016 – 2017 – Click to enlarge

Japan

Japan Interest Rates – 2013 – 2017 March – Click to enlarge

Switzerland

Switzerland Interest Rates – 2013 – 2017 March – Click to enlarge

United Kingdom

UK Interest Rates – March 2016 – 2017 – Click to enlarge

United States

US Interest Rates – March 2016 – 2017 – Click to enlarge
Conclusion:
Central Banks need a coordinated

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The VIX Will Be Over 100 due to Central Bank Created Tail Risk

February 7, 2017

By EconMatters
We discuss the manner in which Central Banks have destroyed financial markets, and have the stage for what I label as the Red Swan Event in this video. When the Swiss National Bank holds risky Tech stocks in its portfolio, we are in unchartered territory!
We had the Financial Crisis of 2008, and instead of learning from the mistakes of incentivizing excessive risk taking, the Central Banks were allowed to buy outright assets without any formal authority, no checks and balances whatsoever, and have since destroyed the entire financial market system globally.
In short, Financial Markets are broken, any sense of properly pricing risk has been completely removed from the market, as such, risk has been distorted to such a degree, the future ramifications for financial markets, and financial market participants is profound.
Expect the VIX, to blow past the elevated levels that occurred during the financial crisis of 2008 in the 60 range, to well over 100, and even 200 is possible, maybe even 1,000. The Central Banks have no clue to what degree they have distorted financial asset prices, I can tell you my model stops at a 20 Sigma Event over the next decade.

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Risk Reward Analysis for Financial Markets

January 8, 2017

We focus this video regarding the potential upside for stocks versus the considerable downside risk for investors. All Technical Analysis is flawed and backward looking, it is a Critical Thinking flaw to extrapolate the future from the most recent past. I want to know the next market move, and not still be stuck on the most recent market move. And the most important fact of all is valuations, stocks are in a bubble right now due to Central Banks extreme monetary policies.

Stock Market Crash 1929 – Click to enlarge
I have news for you we already had the “Inflation Trade” from 2008 to 2016, now we are setting up for the Market Crash Trade from 2017 until Stocks find a bottom based upon fundamental valuations that are sustainable long term. Central Banks have all shot their wad, they are loaded to the gills with assets, which once the decline comes, and people (including central banks) start experiencing losses on their portfolio holdings, selling begets selling, and the Stock Markets around the Globe start crashing like the Tulip Market did, and every bubble market since the beginning of time.
This always plays out the same way every single time.

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Risk Reward Analysis for Financial Markets

January 5, 2017

By EconMatters

We focus this video regarding the potential upside for stocks versus the considerable downside risk for investors. All Technical Analysis is flawed and backward looking, it is a Critical Thinking flaw to extrapolate the future from the most recent past. I want to know the next market move, and not still be stuck on the most recent market move. And the most important fact of all is valuations, stocks are in a bubble right now due to Central Banks extreme monetary policies.
I have news for you we already had the "Inflation Trade" from 2008 to 2016, now we are setting up for the Market Crash Trade from 2017 until Stocks find a bottom based upon fundamental valuations that are sustainable long term. Central Banks have all shot their wad, they are loaded to the gills with assets, which once the decline comes, and people (including central banks) start experiencing losses on their portfolio holdings, selling begets selling, and the Stock Markets around the Globe start crashing like the Tulip Market did, and every bubble market since the beginning of time.
This always plays out the same way every single time.

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Major Currency Pairs & The Election (Video)

November 8, 2016

By EconMatters

We focus on the Election effects regarding the major currency pairs and the US Dollar in this video. Check out the Swiss Franc and the Mexican Peso Price Action after the election. This election has probably been great for CNN`s ratings, that would be a short after the election cycle is over.
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Related posts: October 2016: Swiss inflation remain lowest compared to Eurozone and U.S.
Merkel says Brexit talks mustn’t impact Swiss-EU negotiations
Brexit is making it too expensive to go skiing in Alps
Statistics on tourist accommodation in September 2016: Increase in overnight stays in September
SMI down as investors eye the US election
Swiss Consumer Sentiment Still Lukewarm
Swiss real estate market UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index 3Q 2016

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