Tag Archives: USD

Swiss Franc The last ECB meeting and Dragh’s hawkish comments is for us the main reason of the euro strength, this despite stronger Swiss GDP growth. We see a mismatch between the weak ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and the St. Louis and Atlanta Fed GDP trackers. Click to enlarge. Federal Reserve Our approach to Fed-watching is clear:  Among the cacophony of voices, the Troika of Fed leadership, Yellen, Fischer and...

Swiss Franc The EUR/CHF retreated today together with falling stock prices. Later during the European day, U.S. stocks recovered. When investors sell their stocks and move into cash, then the Swiss Franc very often appreciates. This is the safe haven effect: cash in Swiss Franc is perceived as more secure. Click to enlarge. FX Rates Stocks and bonds have begun the new week much like last week ended. Sharp losses...

Summary: Global bonds and global stocks ended last week on a weak note and this will likely carry into this week’s activity. The Bank of England meets, but the data may be more important. Oil and commodity prices more generally look vulnerable, and this coupled with higher yields sapped the Australian ad Canadian dollar in the second half of last week. The week ahead will likely be shaped by a combination of...

(Dublin business trip is ending, London next week, sporadic posts to continue) Swiss Franc Click to enlarge. FX Rates The US dollar is lower against all the major currencies this week as North American participants close it out. On the day, the dollar is consolidating swings yesterday and is narrowly mixed. Bond yields are higher and equities are mostly lower. The euro has finished lower the last three Fridays....

[unable to retrieve full-text content]In the last two days, the euro moved upwards against CHF. Given that Swiss GDP was stronger than the one in the euro zone, this is surprising. But we must recognize that Draghi could be the reason. Inflation forecasts of 1.2% in 2017 and 1.8% in the euro zone would mean the ECB hikes rates maybe in 2018 or 2019. I personally do not believe it, given that wage inflation in Italy or Spain is clearly under 1%. This is lower than Swiss wage inflation of 0.8%.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Disappointing industrial output figures from Germany and UK are helping stabilize the US dollar after yesterday's shellacking. Investors have been fickle about the prospects for a rate hike this month, and the unexpected dramatic slide in the service spurred a downgrading of such expectations, and a flight out of the dollar. It was not simply a quest for yields, though that was part of it. Surely the yen and euro's strength is not a function of superior...

[unable to retrieve full-text content]The US dollar is trading heavily against most of the major and emerging market currencies. However, the losses are modest, and the greenback remains within recent ranges. The Antipodean and Scandi bloc currencies are performing best.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]ISM showed unexpected weakness in Aug non-mfg PMI. Markit measure slipped but not as much as ISM. Odds of a Sept Fed hike slip to about 15%. Watch trendline in Dollar Index near 94.45.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]There were several developments that took place while US markets were closed for its Labor Day holiday. Most of the economic news was favorable. This included a strong snap back in the UK service PMI, more evidence that the moral suasion campaign to lift wages in Japan is yielding some success and a rise in the Caixin's China's service PMI.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Net-net, the September Fed funds futures contract was little changed on the week. Four high-income central banks meet in the week ahead; the ECB is the only one in play. China accounted for a full three quarters of the US trade deficit in July.