Tag Archives: US politics

More political scrutiny of drug and treatment prices is likely following the midterm elections.Healthcare policy was a key theme in the midterm elections and it seems that Democrats capitalised on this popular anxiety better than Republicans (they gained enough seats in the House of Representatives to secure a majority). Indeed, one of President Trump’s key failures over the past two years has been around healthcare policy. The Congressional vote to partly repeal Obama’s healthcare reform...

The gridlock produced the midterm elections complicates legislation, but our central scenario for the US economy remains unchanged.As predicted, Democrats gained enough seats in the House to form a majority (their first since Barack Obama’s first term). As also expected by polls, they lost seats in the Senate, where they remain a minority. With a Congress that will likely be gridlocked, legislation, including tax legislation, is likely to be meagre, leaving the US economy to continue to...

Political gridlock has been good news for US stocks in the past, but Tuesday’s midterm elections come at a time of rising doubts about market prospects.The US midterm elections take place on Tuesday 6 November. Based on recent polls, the most likely outcome is that the Democrats will regain a small majority in the House of Representatives, while the Republicans keep a small majority in the Senate.Should the Democrats take control of the House, Washington D.C. could be back to ‘gridlock as...

Internal migration patterns could have far-reaching political consequences in coming elections.One salient feature of the US since its foundation has been the dynamism of internal migration. In recent decades, the trend has mostly been one of southern and western tropism, with an outflow of population from the north (the northeast in particular), to the south and west of the country.This trend seems to have amplified since the 2008 financial crisis. And data for this year suggests a further...

But this may say little about Trump’s 2020 prospects.Most opinion polls suggest that the Democrats will win a majority in the House in the 6 November midterms, while the Republicans will retain their majority in the Senate.The historical relationship between the president’s approval rating and seats lost by his party in the midterms further corroborates the likelihood of a loss of House seats for the Republicans. The incumbent president’s party tends to face an erosion of seats, with a few...

Meetings on Capitol Hill in mid-May with a series of top (mostly Republican) officials, congressmen and economic advisors provided insight into where the Trump presidency is going, trade tensions and the November mid-term election .*With apologies to Frank Capra.Christophe Donay, Head of Asset Allocation & Macroeconomic Research, Pictet Wealth Management.Meetings  I had in Washington in May touched on four main themes: i) economic policy; ii) trade policy; iii) US politics; and iv)...