Tag Archives: UK sterling

Big US banks released their 2Q earnings last week. The figures were good thanks to robust growth in investment-banking income as well as a drop in loan-loss provisions. But banks also reported that wage costs were beginning to rise, and while a booming housing market has boosted mortgage-loan business, the renewed retreat in long-term yields has been a drag on interest income. In the main, however, the message from US banks is that business is good as a strong...

With Boris Johnson likely to become prime minster this week, our base case is for another extension to the 31 October Brexit deadline, probably for several months.Boris Johnson looks likely to be succeed Theresa May as prime minister, after the internal Tory party contest. Johnson prominently waves the no-deal Brexit flag (the possibility of exiting the EU without a deal) by the 31 October deadline, in order to get more concessions from the EU – a relatively perilous negotiation...

The EU has granted a Brexit deadline extension to 31 October of this year. The next step after this extension could be another extension.Following the EU Council summit, 31 October 2019 is the new Brexit deadline. Given that we see limited probability of a sudden unknotting of the current UK parliamentary gridlock, our core scenario is that the deadline will be extended again. The current timeframe is too short to really work on an alternative to the current ‘Withdrawal Agreement’, which has...

Uncertainty remains high with outcomes that could have consequences beyond the UK.Having secured formal approval of the divorce deal from EU leaders on 25 November, Prime Minister Theresa May now faces the far bigger challenge of securing UK parliamentary approval by mid-December. Both political and economic uncertainty could remain elevated until the 29 March deadline.The tail risk of a no-deal Brexit on 29 March remains high, although there is still room for alternatives, including an...

But significant political challenges lie ahead before the 29 March deadline for Brexit. Sterling likely to be in the spotlight for several months. Theresa May’s cabinet has approved her divorce deal with the European Union (EU). A few cabinet secretaries have resigned, including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab because the deal keeps the UK in a transitory ‘customs union’ with the EU, which in his view continues to give...

But significant political challenges lie ahead before the 29 March deadline for Brexit. Sterling likely to be in the spotlight for several months.Theresa May’s cabinet has approved her divorce deal with the European Union (EU). A few cabinet secretaries have resigned, including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab because the deal keeps the UK in a transitory ‘customs union’ with the EU, which in his view continues to give the EU too much influence on UK affairs.The next step is formal approval of...

With the UK set to start talks on leaving the EU, and with the country’s ability to attract funding to cover its current-account deficit uncertain, downward pressure on sterling is likely to continue. Sterling declined by roughly 6% against the US dollar within a few minutes on currency markets on 7 October. Whatever the reasons for the sudden plunge, and although there was a rapid (but partial) recovery in sterling’s value, it is quite worrying to see a major currency moving so much...