Tag Archives: The Stock Market

  Only Sell Stocks in Recessions? We were recently made aware of an interview at Bloomberg, in which Tony Dwyer of Cannacord and Brian Wieser of Pivotal Research were quizzed on the recently announced utterly bizarre AT&T – Time Warner merger. We were actually quite surprised that AT&T wanted to buy the giant media turkey. Prior to the offer, TWX still traded 50% below the high it had reached 17 years ago. The...

Iffy Looking Charts The stock market has held up quite well this year in the face of numerous developments that are usually regarded as negative (from declining earnings, to the Brexit, to a US presidential election that leaves a lot to be desired, to put it mildly). Of course, the market is never driven by the news – it is exactly the other way around. It is the market that actually writes the news. It may finally...

ABN Amro, Natixis and Wells Fargo have issued bearish calls on gold. Natixis even expects three Fed rate hikes next year.  Pater Tanebrarum discusses these opinions critically.Since gold is correlated to CHF, this is a bearish for the Swiss Franc, too. One additional points speaks against a rate hike. The U.S. capacity utilization that is 75% compared to 90% in 1967. So Far a Normal Correction In last week’s update...

So Far a Normal Correction In last week’s update on the gold sector, we mentioned that there was a lot of negative sentiment detectable on an anecdotal basis. From a positioning perspective only the commitments of traders still appeared a bit stretched though, while from a technical perspective we felt that a pullback to the 200-day moving average in both gold and gold stocks shouldn’t be regarded as anything but a...

Sentiment and Positioning When we last discussed the gold sector correction (which had only just begun at the time), we mentioned we would update sentiment and positioning data on occasion. For a while, not much changed in these indicators, but as one would expect, last week’s sharp sell-off did in fact move the needle a bit. Gold – just as nice to look at as it always is, but slightly cheaper since last week. Photo...

Sentiment and Positioning When we last discussed the gold sector correction (which had only just begun at the time), we mentioned we would update sentiment and positioning data on occasion. For a while, not much changed in these indicators, but as one would expect, last week’s sharp sell-off did in fact move the needle a bit. Gold – just as nice to look at as it always is, but slightly cheaper since last week. Photo...

Flash-Crashed Earlier this morning the British Pound suddenly found itself on the receiving end of a 6% flash crash during Asian trading hours. Some of the losses have been recouped since then, but that will be of little consolation to anyone who may have been long the GBP overnight. Oops. Photo credit: Time & Life Pictures / Getty Images - Click to enlarge Now before you strike this up to some ‘fat...

John Hussman on Recent Developments We always look forward to John Hussman’s weekly missive on the markets. Some people say that he is a “permabear”, but we don’t think that is a fair characterization. He is rightly wary of the stock market’s historically extremely high valuation and the loose monetary policy driving the surge in asset prices. As he reminds his readers in this week’s market comment, he altered his...

  The Economy and the Stock Market As long time readers know, we are always paying close attention to the manufacturing sector, which is far more important to the US economy than is generally believed. In terms of gross output it is the largest sector of the economy, and it should of course be obvious that saving, investment and production are the only ways to create wealth. Contrary to what one often hears from...

[unable to retrieve full-text content]The gathering of central planners at Jackson Hole was widely expected to bring some clarity regarding the Fed’s policy intentions. This is of course a ridiculous assumption, since these people have not the foggiest idea what they are doing or what they are going to do next. Like all central planners, they are forever groping in the dark.