Tag Archives: Saving

In a (December 2015) Bank of England Staff Working Paper, Lukasz Rachel and Thomas Smith dissect the global decline in long-term real interest rates over the last thirty years. A summary of their executive summary: Market measures of long-term risk-free real interest rates have declined by around 450bps. Absent signs of overheating this suggests that the global neutral rate fell. Expected trend growth as well as other factors affecting desired savings and investment determine the neutral...

On his blog, James Hamilton summarizes a Bank of England working paper by Lukasz Rachel and Thomas Smith on the determinants of low real interest rates.

I was asked to play devil’s advocate in a debate about “secular stagnation.” Here we go: Alvin Hansen, the “American Keynes” predicted the end of US growth in the late 1930s—just before the economy started to boom because of America’s entry into WWII. Soon, nobody talked about “secular stagnation” any more. 75 years later, Larry Summers has revived the argument. Many academics have reacted skeptically; at the 2015 ASSA meetings, Greg Mankiw predicted that nobody would talk about secular...