Tag Archives: newsletter

◆ Gold has edged higher to reach three week highs at $1,535/oz today after Trump took a hard-line stance on China and Iran during his U.N. speech ◆ Stocks fell in the U.S. yesterday and today in Europe on increasing political turmoil in the U.S. and the UK; Concerns about the global economy and the outlook for stocks is enhancing gold’s safe haven appeal ◆ Palladium has surged to an all time record high and we expect gold and silver to follow suit in the...

US Dollar rises versus Swiss Franc for the second-day in-a-row USD/CHF testing key 200-day simple moving average and 0.9950.  The USD/CHF rose on Thursday, holding firm above 0.9900. The pair peaked on European hours at 0.9947 and then pulled back finding support at 0.9900. The bounced back to the upside unable to challenge daily highs and is trading at 0.9930. The move to the upside was not as strong as earlier today amid a deteriorating sentiment in markets that...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.15% to 1.0866 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 26(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: A compelling narrative for yesterday’s disparate price action is lacking. A flight to safety, which is a leading interpretation, does not explain the weakness in the yen, gold, or US Treasuries. Month- and quarter-end portfolio and hedge adjustments may be at work, but the risk is...

© Siriporn Kaenseeya | Dreamstime.com The number of people with debts in default continues to rise in Switzerland. At the end of July 2019, 561,000 people, 6.5% of the population, were unable to service their debts according to the price comparison website comparis.ch. The figures, based on data from the credit analysis company CRIF include those who have failed to make repayments and are being pursued by creditors or have declared bankruptcy. The highest rates were...

USD/CHF pulls back from a multi-day high, stays above 200-bar SMA. Trend-positive RSI increases the odds of upside. Despite bouncing off 200-bar simple moving average (SMA), USD/CHF fails to cross near-term key resistances as it trades around 0.9915 while heading into the European session open on Thursday. With this, the quote can witness pullback to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of August-September upside, at 0.9880, ahead of highlighting the key 200-bar SMA level of...

This post is a long excursion to make two simple points: The SNB is IMHO just acting in a passive way as a clearing house for (massive) capital inflows. It is not actively managing the exchange rate. A rate of increase of sight deposits of 2.5bn per week (100bn p.a.) is not extraordinary considering the need to recycle a current account surplus of 80bn p.a. Observing SNB behaviour over time, it looks to me that what the media call “currency interventions” by the SNB...

There’s been an unusual level of honesty coming out of Liberty Street of late. Not total honesty but certainly more than the usual nothing denials and dismissals. If you don’t immediately recognize the reference, that’s the street in NYC where FRBNY and its Open Market Desk resides. What is supposed to be the moneyed centered of the universe. After all, as Ben Bernanke famously threatened in November 2002, that’s the printing press. Or is it? In my own conversations...

Markets have moved into risk-off mode from a confluence of events emanating from the US Speaker of the House Pelosi formally launched a formal impeachment inquiry; DOJ inserted itself into Trump’s fight with New York state Trump’s speech to the UN General Assembly yesterday was noteworthy for its belligerence RBNZ and BOT kept rates steady, as expected; Czech is expected to follow suit The dollar is broadly firmer against the majors as risk-off impulses return to...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.13% to 1.0842 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 25(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Global equities and fixed income reacted to the large moves yesterday in the US when the 10-year note yield fell eight basis points, and the S&P 500 fell by 0.85%. Investors have focused on three separate developments and two of which came from President Trump’s speech at the...

The price of this “solution”–the undermining of the financial system–will eventually be paid in full. The financial storm clouds are gathering, and no, I’m not talking about impeachment or the Fed and repo troubles–I’m talking about much more serious structural issues, issues that cannot possibly be fixed within the existing financial system. Yes, I’m talking about the cost structure of our society: earned income has stagnated while costs have soared, and households...