Tag Archives: newsletter

The more kafkaesque quagmires you’ve slogged through, the more you hope “pay-to-play for the rest of us” beomes ubiquitous. You know how “pay-to-play” works: contribute a couple of million dollars to key political players, and then get your tax break, subsidy, no-bid contract, etc., slipped into some nook or cranny of the legislative process that few (if any) will notice because the legislation is hundreds of pages long or a “gut and replace” magic wand was wielded...

It has become a familiar sight over the past decade and a half: a supposedly venerable member of the financial elite tells us with utmost calm that what we think we are seeing isn’t really all that bad. The Fed already knows all about it and has already taken all necessary steps. Further, they are monitoring the situation closely and are ready to make any necessary adjustments with ease and alacrity. Reading the Fed’s meeting minutes and picking through its actual...

Overall, in 2021, Swiss salaries shrunk by 0.2% in nominal terms and by 0.8% in real terms, given an annual rate of inflation of 0.6% across the year, reported the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) this week. Photo by Sora Shimazaki on Pexels.comHowever, when broken down, women saw an overall increase in pay of 0.6% while men on average saw pay fall by 0.7%. The difference reflects differences in the type of work undertaken by men and women. Pay for public sector...

If you’ve purchased any airline tickets lately, you’ve probably noticed that prices are up. It’s quite a reversal from the days of covid lockdowns, when airline tickets could be had for half the price of 2019 fares. Or even lower, in many cases. But those days are apparently over, and as Yahoo Finance notes this week: Airline fares soared 18.6% in April, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)…. The jump,...

The fact that German retail sales crashed so much in April 2022 is significant for a couple reasons. First, it more than suggests something is wrong with Germany, and not just some run-of-the-mill hiccup. Second, because it was this April rather than last April or last summer, you can’t blame COVID this time. Something else is going on. . In America, the Fed Cult is out to take credit for this brewing downturn (Jay Powell seeking his place alongside Volcker, which...

The current baby formula shortage in the United States is a pressing crisis, and many in the media have been rushing to explain how such a thing could have happened. But on close analysis, it appears to share the same root as virtually every other crisis experienced in the modern world: a government promised benefits without costs. Our political leaders either fail to understand or outright ignore the basic, unavoidable limitation on government action, that no...

The divergent performances make it challenging to talk about the G10 currencies last week. The Canadian dollar led the advancing major currencies with a 1.2% gain last week. It and the Australian dollar rose above last month's highs. On the other side was the Japanese yen. The more than 20 bp backing up of the US 10-year yield, the biggest weekly advance in two months, lifted the dollar by more than 2.8% against the yen. That is the biggest weekly gain since March...

One of my areas of research in institutional economics is the social behavior of people under different political regimes, what Thomas Schelling called micromotives and macrobehavior. Of course, this topic is directly related to many disciplines, from behavioral economics and political theory to the neurobiology of decision-making and the theory of biological markets. The theme raises the following question: What are the reasons for the broad social support of the...

The Bank of Canada on Wednesday increased its policy interest rate (known as the overnight target rate) from 1.0 percent to 1.5 percent. This was the second fifty–basis point increase since April and is the third target rate increase since March of this year. Canada’s target rate had been flat at 0.25 percent for twenty-three months following the bank’s slashing of the target rate beginning in March 2020. As in the United States and in Europe, price inflation rates...

It’s a broken a record, the macro stylus stuck unable to move on, just skipping and repeating the same spot on the vinyl. Since Xi Jinping’s lockdowns broke it, as it’s said, when Xi is satisfied there’s zero COVID he’ll release the restrictions and that will fix everything. The economy will go right back to good, like flipping a switch. Where have we heard that before? Everywhere, actually, but especially in China. Whether early last year, last August, and now again...