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[Reprinted with permission of the authors.] The year 2023 is shaping up to be a challenging one for the Federal Reserve System. The Fed is on track to post its first annual operating loss since 1915. Per our estimates, the loss will be large, perhaps $100 billion or more, and this cash loss does not count the unrealized mark-to-market losses on the Fed’s massive securities portfolio. An operating loss of $100 billion would, if properly accounted for, leave the Fed...

There are several macro highlights in the week ahead, during which Chinese markets are closed for the Lunar New Year celebration. The preliminary January purchasing managers surveys pose headline risk. However, the survey data, for example, had the US composite below the 50 boom/bust level every month in H2 22, which likely overstates the case, as the first look at Q4 22 US GDP will probably show. While some improvement is expected, composite PMI readings are...

At a meeting in Bern on 19 January 2023, Werner Luginbühl, the head of Elcom, Switzerland’s electricity regulator, called on the sector to be careful to manage consumer expectations, reported RTS. Photo by SHVETS production on Pexels.comAccording to Luginbühl, many consumers are confused by Switzerland’s rising electricity prices. Some think the electricity consumed in Switzerland comes from hydro and nuclear production where production costs have been unaffected....

Here we go again. Every few years in Congress there is a purely political battle over the debt ceiling. We’re supposed to be horrified and worried that the US might default on some of its debt. Some commentators will insist the US has never defaulted, and that default be a disaster. (That’s wrong, by the way. The US has defaulted before.) But these debt ceiling debates always end the same way. Congress ends up increasing the debt ceiling and the US’s national debt...

The line for the self-checkout registers at my neighborhood Albertsons stretched into the store’s produce section. Is this human progress? I wondered, scanning my groceries—this just after I had filled my car’s gas tank at a not-so-convenient convenience store near work. Not long ago, someone not only pumped your gas and cleaned your windshield but also checked your oil and tire pressure while you waited comfortably behind the wheel of your car. Gas retailers were...

Overview: The US dollar is mostly softer today against the G10 currencies, with the notable exception, yen, Swiss franc, and sterling. The risk-on mood is seen in the foreign exchange market with the Antipodean and Scandi currencies leading the move against the greenback. The yen has fallen by about 1.3% this week, leading losers, while sterling's 1.1% gain puts it at the top. Despite the poor showing of US equities yesterday, risk appetites returned and most of the...

Pharmaceuticals giant Roche, whose towers dominate the Basel skyline, is the top ranked Swiss company in this listing. © Keystone / Michael Buholzer Swiss pharmaceuticals group Roche, logistics company Kühne+Nagel and luxury goods group Richemont are among the world’s top 100 family businesses, according to a study by EY Switzerland. Sixteen Swiss-based family businesses are among the world’s top 500, a figure that has remained stable over the past two years,...

It’s that time again when the US government has to prepare itself for an internal battle to raise the debt ceiling so it can meet various obligations. This is a merry dance that has been danced before, as we mention below. For sure, every time it happens fewer and fewer people are convinced of the trustworthiness of the US dollar. This combined with the recent announcement by Saudi Arabia of its willingness to consider trading in currencies other than the US Dollar...

The Producer and Import Price Index fell in December 2022 by 0.7% compared with the previous month, reaching 108.5 points (December 2020 = 100). Compared with December 2021, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 3.2%. Average annual inflation in 2022 reached +5.6%. These are the results from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Average annual inflation for 2022 corresponds to the rate of change between the annual average for...

Overview:  Yesterday's string of dismal US economic data delivered a material blow to those still thinking that a soft-landing was possible. Retail sales by the most in the a year. Manufacturing output fell by nearly 2.5% in the last two months of 2022. Bad economic news weighed on US stocks. The honeymoon of New Year may have ended yesterday. The US 10-year yield fell below 3.40% for the first time since the middle of last September. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow...