Tag Archives: newsletter

As weird as it may seem at first, the primary economic problem right now is that the global economy looks like it is growing again. There is no doubt that it continues on an upturn, but the mere fact that whatever economic statistic has a positive sign in front of it ends up being classified as some variant of strong. That’s how this works in mainstream analysis, this absence of any sort of gradation where if it’s...

An Astonishing Statistic As the final FOMC announcement of the year approaches, we want to briefly return to the topic of how the meeting tends to affect the stock market from a statistical perspective. As long time readers may recall, the typical performance of the stock market in the trading days immediately ahead of FOMC announcements was quite remarkable in recent decades. We are referring to the Seaonax event...

Thomas Jordan, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank News conference of the Swiss National Bank, Berne, 14.12.2017 Thomas Jordan - Click to enlarge Introductory remarks by Thomas Jordan Ladies and gentlemen It is a pleasure for me to welcome you to the Swiss National Bank’s news conference. I will begin by explaining our monetary policy decision and our assessment of the economic situation. I will...

Andréa M. Maechler, Member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank News conference of the Swiss National Bank, Berne, 14.12.2017 Complete text: PDF (478 KB) I will begin my remarks with a review of the situation on the financial markets, before going on to discuss the progress made in reference interest rate reform. Situation on the financial markets Let me start with developments on the financial markets....

Fritz Zurbrügg, Vice Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank News conference of the Swiss National Bank, Berne, 14.12.2017 Fritz Zurbrugg - Click to enlarge Introductory remarks by Fritz Zurbrügg In my remarks today, I would like to address some of the developments currently taking place in the field of financial stability. I shall look at the big banks first before turning to the domestically...

Swiss National Bank leaves expansionary monetary policy unchanged The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy, with the aim of stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity. Interest on sight deposits at the SNB is to remain at –0.75% and the target range for the three-month Libor is unchanged at between –1.25% and –0.25%. The SNB will remain active in the foreign...

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015...

Swiss growth was disappointing at the end of 2016 and in the first half of 2017. Consequently, GDP growth this year is likely to be just 1.0%, its lowest level since 2012. However, a wide set of statistics are already painting a considerably more positive picture of strengthening growth as we approach the end of 2017. Of particular note is the increasing contribution of manufacturing to real GDP growth. Switzerland’s...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.18% to 1.1673 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates US interest rates have recovered the drop seen after the FOMC yesterday, but the dollar at best has been able to consolidate its losses and at worst, seen its losses extended. The Fed boosted its growth forecasts and lower unemployment...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.15% to 1.1651 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 12(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Trends The US dollar is trading with a lower bias against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The upside surprise in Sweden’s inflation is helped the krona recover from its recent slide. It is the strongest of the majors, gaining...