Tag Archives: Macroview

France’s public deficit fell to 2.6% of GDP in 2017 according to INSEE’s preliminary assessment, down from 3.4% in 2016 and below the 3% threshold for the first time since 2007. The outcome was better than the government’s estimate of a 2.9% deficit. If confirmed, France will exit the Excessive Deficit Procedure that the European Commission opened in 2009. France’s budget balance ended up about EUR10bn above the level...

Moderate rise in core inflation should not divert Fed from its current policy path.February core PCE inflation rose 0.23% m-o-m, in line with expectations. The y-o-y reading was up to 1.6% from 1.5% in January.The improvement in US core inflation remains quite unspectacular when taking into account full employment and solid underlying growth (likely to reach 3% this year).Core inflation should rise to 2% y-o-y in Q2-2018, but it is then likely to be broadly stagnant for several months.Rising...

Moderate rise in core inflation should not divert Fed from its current policy path.February core PCE inflation rose 0.23% m-o-m, in line with expectations. The y-o-y reading was up to 1.6% from 1.5% in January.The improvement in US core inflation remains quite unspectacular when taking into account full employment and solid underlying growth (likely to reach 3% this year).Core inflation should rise to 2% y-o-y in Q2-2018, but it is then likely to be broadly stagnant for several months.Rising...

The deficit declined below 3% for the first time in a decade, which should boost France’s credibility with its neighbours.France’s public deficit fell to 2.6% of GDP in 2017 according to INSEE’s preliminary assessment, down from 3.4% in 2016 and below the 3% threshold for the first time since 2007. The outcome was better than the government’s estimate of a 2.9% deficit. If confirmed, France will exit the Excessive Deficit Procedure that the European Commission opened in 2009.France’s budget...

The deficit declined below 3% for the first time in a decade, which should boost France’s credibility with its neighbours.France’s public deficit fell to 2.6% of GDP in 2017 according to INSEE’s preliminary assessment, down from 3.4% in 2016 and below the 3% threshold for the first time since 2007. The outcome was better than the government’s estimate of a 2.9% deficit. If confirmed, France will exit the Excessive Deficit Procedure that the European Commission opened in 2009.France’s budget...

The Trump Administration last week announced tariffs of 25% on USD 60bn worth of imports from China (out of USD506bn of total Chinese merchandise imports). The list of products targeted, still has to be thrashed out. The official aim is to sanction China for alleged theft of US firms’ intellectual property; the US Trade Representative (USTR) estimates the damage amounts to USD 50bn. But President Trump also sees the...

In 2017, for the third year in a row, Chinese phone and electronic good imports exceeded the value of oil imports to the US.For decades US trade policy’s biggest focus was on the country’s astronomical imports of oil. But the oil bill has moderated significantly in recent years, due to the domestic shale oil production boom and the (associated) drop in global oil prices.Lately, and more particularly since Donald Trump arrived in the White House, the focus has turned to trade with China....

In 2017, for the third year in a row, Chinese phone and electronic good imports exceeded the value of oil imports to the US.For decades US trade policy’s biggest focus was on the country’s astronomical imports of oil. But the oil bill has moderated significantly in recent years, due to the domestic shale oil production boom and the (associated) drop in global oil prices.Lately, and more particularly since Donald Trump arrived in the White House, the focus has turned to trade with China....

Recent positive developments in the United Kingdom (UK), namely the transitional deal reached between the UK and the European Union (EU) on 20 March and the strong job market report on 21 March, call for a more positive short-term outlook for the sterling than previously thought. We therefore revise our projections upward for the sterling on the entire time horizon. Our new projection for the GBP/USD rate in the next 12...

Trump’s trade tariffs should have a very small impact and may be a ploy to reach a trade agreement.The Trump Administration last week announced tariffs of 25% on USD 60bn worth of imports from China (out of USD 506bn of total Chinese merchandise imports). The list of products targeted still has to be thrashed out. The official aim is to sanction China for alleged theft of US firms’ intellectual property; the US Trade Representative (USTR) estimates the damage amounts to USD 50bn.But...