“The right of self-determination in regard to the question of membership in a state thus means: whenever the inhabitants of a particular territory, whether it be a single village, a whole district, or a series of adjacent districts, make it known, by a freely conducted plebiscite, that they no longer wish to remain united to the state to which they belong at the time, but wish either to form an independent state or to attach themselves to some other state, their wishes are to be...
Read More »Monthly Macro Monitor – September 2020
The economic data over the last month continued to improve but the breadth of improvement has narrowed. Additionally, while most of the economic data series are still improving, the rate of change, as Jeff pointed out recently, has slowed. I guess that isn’t that surprising as the initial phase of the recovery comes to an end. 2nd quarter was a giant downdraft and 3rd quarter saw an initial rapid climb out the giant hole dug by the shutdowns (an own goal of epic...
Read More »“The U.S. economy felt like a balloon in search of a needle” – Part II
Interview with Robert Mark: Claudio Grass (CG): In this surreal policy environment, how has the role and the investment process of the value investor evolved, especially over the last decade? How can one still identify value in a world of subsidized binge borrowing, extreme indebtedness, and stock buybacks? Robert Mark (RM): The patriarch of value investing, Ben Graham, once said, “In the short run the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a...
Read More »“The U.S. economy felt like a balloon in search of a needle” – Part II
Interview with Robert Mark: Claudio Grass (CG): In this surreal policy environment, how has the role and the investment process of the value investor evolved, especially over the last decade? How can one still identify value in a world of subsidized binge borrowing, extreme indebtedness, and stock buybacks? Robert Mark (RM): The patriarch of value investing, Ben Graham, once said, “In the short run the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing...
Read More »Uh Oh, The Dollar Has Caught A Bid
Anyone who follows Alhambra knows that we keep an eye on the dollar. It is a very important part of our process of identifying the economic environment. A rising dollar, when combined with a falling rate of growth, can be a lethal combination. That was the situation in March and of course during the financial crisis of 2008. So the recent rally is something that has got our attention. For now, though, we don’t see any significant stresses in the system that would...
Read More »“The U.S. economy felt like a balloon in search of a needle” – Part I
Interview with Robert Mark As we move deeper and deeper into this covid crisis, more and more people understand that there’s a lot more to fear besides the disease itself. As the economic impact and the full scale of the damage caused by the lockdowns and the shutdowns become undeniable, there are too many questions lacking any sort of convincing answer and the future for so many employees, business owners, investors and ordinary savers seems bleak and uncertain....
Read More »“The U.S. economy felt like a balloon in search of a needle” – Part I
Interview with Robert Mark As we move deeper and deeper into this covid crisis, more and more people understand that there’s a lot more to fear besides the disease itself. As the economic impact and the full scale of the damage caused by the lockdowns and the shutdowns become undeniable, there are too many questions lacking any sort of convincing answer and the future for so many employees, business owners, investors and ordinary savers seems bleak and uncertain. The one thing...
Read More »You cannot print your way to prosperity – Part II
Interview with Theodore Deden Claudio Grass (CG): Looking at the damage inflicted upon supply chains, production facilities and global trade in particular, how quickly could these operations snap back even if all COVID-related restrictions were lifted tomorrow? Do you think we’ll eventually get back to business as usual, or have we now experienced a permanent shift to a “new normal”? Theodore Deden (TD): Forget about the legal COVID-related restrictions. If it were...
Read More »You cannot print your way to prosperity – Part II
Interview with Theodore Deden Claudio Grass (CG): Looking at the damage inflicted upon supply chains, production facilities and global trade in particular, how quickly could these operations snap back even if all COVID-related restrictions were lifted tomorrow? Do you think we’ll eventually get back to business as usual, or have we now experienced a permanent shift to a “new normal”? Theodore Deden (TD): Forget about the legal COVID-related restrictions. If it were really just...
Read More »You cannot print your way to prosperity – Part I
Interview with Theodore Deden There might be a lot of conflicting opinions and disagreement these days about the right way to get out of this current crisis and to rebuild our economy and our society. One the very few things we can all agree on, however, is that the challenges and the disruptions we’re faced with today are simply unprecedented. There is no blueprint, no known formula for this kind of scenario. And yet, while the triggers of this crisis might be very different...
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