Tag Archives: FX Trends

Bank Indonesia signaled it may pause its easing cycle Vietnam undertook a massive cabinet shuffle MSCI is reviewing Nigeria’s standing in its equity indices due to the impact of ongoing FX controls Russia’s central bank tilted a bit more dovish South Africa’s parliament voted down President Zuma’s impeachment proposal by a vote of 233-143 The impeachment process in Brazil moved forward another step Brazil’s Prosecutor General submitted a report to the Supreme Court saying that Lula’s...

In the first quarter, there was some speculation that currency pegs either in the Middle East or Hong Kong were going to give way.  We argued that the pegs would in fact hold, and hold they have.  In fact, pressure on the Saudi and Hong Kong pegs have dissipated.  Since the end of last month, Denmark's peg against the euro (+/- 1% band) has come under pressure.   Indeed, the pressure is the most acute since January 2015.  When the Swiss abandoned the cap on the franc then, speculative...

The surging yen has been the main feature in the foreign exchange market in recent days, but its advancing streak has been stopped with today's setback.  The greenback traded briefly dipped below JPY107.70 in North America yesterday but has not been below JPY!08 today.  It is near JPY109 as NY dealers return to their posts.  Japanese officials may have ratcheted up their rhetoric a notch, but the ultimately it simply seems the yen buying dried up.  Either the demand at the beginning of...

This Great Graphic shows the results of the last three Wall Street Journal survey of business and academic economists on the outlook for Fed policy. The key take away is that despite all the talk and ink spilled on the shifting Fed stance and the split within the FOMC, economists views did not change much over the past month. In March, 76% of the economists expected the next hike in June.  In the April survey that was completed earlier this week found 75% expect a June hike.  Only one...

The yen's surge in recent days has captured the attention of investors and policymakers alike.    It is indeed unsettling and seems to run counter to the economic logic negative interest rates, which the BOJ surprised the market with at the end of January. Yet, if one thinks the market has gotten ahead of itself, perhaps picking  a top in the yen may not be prudent.  Entry levels are important but so is the stop.  It is not clear where one should put a stop if trying to pick a bottom to...

The main feature in the foreign exchange market continues to be the surge of the Japanese yen.  A convincing explanation of the yen's strength seems elusive.  Until last week, which means through the fiscal year-end last month, Japanese fund managers have been buying foreign bonds at a near-record pace.  Foreign investors, for their part, have been dumping Japanese shares.  The main buyers of the yen appeared to be speculators, wherein the futures markets, they have amassed a near-record...

The old head and shoulders pattern in the dollar against the yen is back in vogue.  We first pointed it out in the first week of January here. Recall the details.  The neckline is drawn around JPY116.30 and measuring objective is near JPY107.00.   That target also corresponds to a 38.2% retracement of the big Abe-inspired dollar rally (~JPY106.80).   This Great Graphic from Bloomberg shows the pattern.   We note the conflicting flows presently.  Portfolio managers continue to be large...

In what is possibly one of the under-appreciated political events of the year, the Netherlands holds a plebiscite today on an associational agreement with Ukraine that has already been approved by the Dutch parliament, the European Parliament and all other 27 EU members.   When stated so baldly, it is difficult to see what is at stake. Yet the consequences of a no vote, which seems likely,  will send reverberations throughout Dutch politics, the EU, and the geopolitical balance in...

The US dollar is better bid today but remains largely in the ranges seen in recent days.  There a few developments to note, which together are lifting European equities after Asian equities softened.   First, the API oil inventory estimate showed an unexpected fall of 4.3 mln barrels.  An increase of half the magnitude was expected.  The DOE estimate, which is considered more reliable, will be one of the North American highlights today.  Second, and also supporting the oil complex today...

(I have been sick with pneumonia but am just about back.  I expect to resume my commentary tomorrow.  Here is my overdue monthly column for a Chinese paper.   Thanks to everyone for their support.)Conspiracy theories have run amok.  After several years of claiming countries were engaged in currency wars, or attempts to drive their currencies down to achieve export advantage, many reporters and analysts announced a volte-face.    At the late February G20 meeting in Shanghai, a secret...