The French government’s response to the ‘yellow vest’ protests could provide a meaningful boost to consumer spending, mostly next year.Following a series of townhall meetings with French citizens up and down France, President Emmanuel Macron responded to social unrest with two doses of fiscal easing. The December package (worth EUR10bn) was incorporated in the stability plan sent to Brussels before Easter and is included in the 3.1% public deficit planned for this year. The measures...
Read More »French tax cuts designed to reboot Macron’s presidency
The French government’s respond to the ‘yellow vest’ protests could provide a meaningful boost to consumer spending, mostly next year. Following a series of townhall meetings with French citizens up and down France, President Emmanuel Macron responded to social unrest with two doses of fiscal easing. The December package (worth EUR10bn) was incorporated in the stability plan sent to Brussels before Easter and is...
Read More »Exports save the day for French GDP growth
Prospects for French economic growth are looking up, but disruptions to consumption are possible. French GDP rose by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q4, the same pace as in Q3. The details reveal that Q4 exports surged significantly, while household consumption and investment slowed. This left growth for the year at +1.5%, following +2.3% in 2017. The breakdown of GDP data show that household consumption growth...
Read More »Exports save the day for French GDP growth
Prospects for French economic growth are looking up, but disruptions to consumption are possible.French GDP rose by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q4, the same pace as in Q3. The details reveal that Q4 exports surged significantly, while household consumption and investment slowed. This left growth for the year at +1.5%, following +2.3% in 2017.The breakdown of GDP data shows that household consumption growth decelerated significantly, to 0.0% from +0.4%, with the disruption to Christmas...
Read More »Taking stock of the latest European GDP numbers
While growth in the UK and Spain is proving resilient, it is expected to slow in both places next year, while growth in France will remain moderate.This week saw the release of preliminary third-quarter GDP numbers in the UK, France and Spain. Following stronger-than-expected GDP growth (+0.5% q-on-q in the third quarter), we have revised our growth forecast for the UK higher, to 2.0% in 2016, (up from an earlier estimate of 1.8%). However, we still expect the fallout from the Brexit...
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