Tag Archives: Featured

Every forecast or guess has one refreshing quality: one will be right and the rest will be wrong. What’s the difference between a forecast and a guess? On one level, the answer is “none”: the future is unknown and even the most informed forecast is still a guess. The evidence for this is the remarkable number of informed forecasts that prove to be as completely off-base as the wildest guesses. On another level, there is a big difference between an informed forecast...

With the acknowledged national debt now a politically and economically unpayable $30 trillion (in reality, its unfunded liabilities are far greater), Americans should start to become acclimated to the realities of the United States’ eventual, inevitable default. While it may seem unfathomable, and the results too catastrophic to imagine, in fact the likely damage to everyday Americans would be minimal in the short term and unquestionably a net plus in the long term....

Last year Congress officially declared Juneteenth a federal holiday. While Very Serious talking heads attempted desperately to convince those that would listen that Juneteenth was a long-celebrated American holiday, the reality is that it was largely unknown around the nation prior to congressional action. The episode is a useful illustration of how the state weaponizes secular holidays to promote a larger cultural agenda. Prior to nationwide riots in 2020,...

Nach dem spektakulären Absturz in der letzten Woche, verlor der BTC zum Wochenende nochmals und stürzte sogar unter die Marke von 20K. Auf Google wurden darauf Höchstwerte für den Suchbegriff „Bitcoin is Dead“ registriert. Doch ist der BTC wirklich tot? Bitcoin News: „Bitcoin is Dead“ mit neuem Spitzenwert in Google SucheGegen Samstag kam es zum Jahrestiefstwert mit nur noch 17.700 US-Dollar pro BTC. Viele Kritiker hatten sich bestätigt gefühlt, als der Markt in den...

Overview: Stocks are rallying. Nearly all the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region rose with China being the noted exception. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up over 1% to post gains for the third consecutive session, the longest advance this month. US futures are up around 2% as they return from yesterday’s holiday. While the US 10-year yield has edged up 3.26%, European yields are mostly softer, with the peripheral premiums falling more than core rates. The US...

‘You don’t have dozens and dozens of people employed on your Russia desks if you are not making money in Russia,’ says one senior private banker in Switzerland Keystone / Yuri Kochetkov January used to be a big month for Swiss bankers and their Russian clients. Many of the Moscow elite had made a tradition of coming to the Alps for the orthodox new year, skiing with their families, then catching up with their financial consiglieri. In St Moritz, one banker recalls...

Etwas überraschend hebt die SNB den Leitzins deutlich an. (Shutterstock.com/Distinctive shots) Die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) hebt etwas überraschend den Leitzins deutlich an. Das letzte Mal hat sie das vor 15 Jahren getan, zu Beginn der Finanzkrise im September 2007. Die Nationalbank erhöht den SNB-Leitzins und den Zins auf Sichtguthaben bei der SNB um 0,50 Prozentpunkte auf -0,25%, wie sie an ihrer geldpolitischen Lagebeurteilung am Donnerstag bekannt gab....

If the March gasoline/oil spike hit a weak global economy really hard and caused what more and more looks like a recessionary shock, a(n un)healthy part of it was the acceleration of Euro$ #5 concurrently rippling through the global reserve system. This much was apparent right from the start, with financial markets gone haywire three months ago (mid-March seasonal bottleneck), and then more of the same into April right to now. The updated TIC data for the month of...

Der Zweiklassengesellschaft kommt im sozialistischen Denken eine wichtige Funktion zu. Eingriffe in das Privateigentum bis hin zur kompletten Enteignung – gern auch als „Vergesellschaftung“ begrifflich verschleiert – erscheinen vor diesem Hintergrund in anderem Licht. Karl Marx‘ widerlegte Zweiklassen-Theorie Nach Marx stehen sich Arbeiter und Kapitalisten mit ihren jeweiligen Interessen diametral gegenüber. Demnach beuten die Kapitalisten als Eigentümer der...

The most dangerous words in monetary policy and economics are “this time is different.” Argentine politicians’ big mistake is to believe that inflation is multicausal and that everything is solved with increasing doses of interventionism. The consumer price index in Argentina experienced a year-on-year rise of 58 percent in April 2022, which means 2.9 percentage points above the variation registered last March. A real catastrophe. Inflation in Argentina is more than...