Tag Archives: emerging markets

Summary China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) disputed press reports that it was slowing or halting purchases of US Treasury bonds. Korean officials warned that it will take stern steps to prevent one-sided currency moves. Bulgaria is talking “intensively” with the ECB and other EU representatives about entering the Exchange Rate Mechanism by mid-year. Hungary announced general elections on April 8....

Stock Markets EM FX was mostly firmer last week, but ended on a mixed note Friday.  Best performers on the week for COP, MXN, and BRL while the worst were ARS, PHP, and CNY.  We continue to warn investors against blindly buying into this broad-based EM rally, as we believe divergences will once again assert themselves in the coming weeks. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, January 03 Source: economist.com - Click...

Summary Tensions on the Korean peninsula appear to be easing. Relations between Pakistan and the US have worsened. The Philippine central bank is tilting more hawkish. The ANC may consider removing Zuma from the presidency at the January 10 meeting of its National Executive Committee. Turkish banker Atilla was convicted of helping Iran evade US financial sanctions. Argentina sold $9 bln of dollar-denominated external...

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. The extreme overbought condition of the US stock market persists so I will continue to hold a modest amount of cash. There are some minor changes within the portfolios but the overall allocation is unchanged. - Click to enlarge There have been two major developments since...

Summary Fitch upgraded Indonesia by a notch to BBB with stable outlook. EU-Poland tensions entered a new phase. Cyril Ramaphosa was elected as the new ANC President over opponent Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. Argentina’s lower house approved President Macri’s pension reform bill. Sebastian Pinera won the Chilean presidency in the second round vote. Mexico political risk is rising as the PRI slush money scandal widens....

Stock Markets EM FX was mixed last week, with political optimism driving the big winners ZAR and CLP.  We remain cautious, as the Fed has signaled its intent to continue tightening in 2018.  Stock Markets Emerging Markets, December 18 Source: economist.com - Click to enlarge Brazil Brazil reports October monthly GDP proxy Monday, which is expected to rise 2.8% y/y vs. 1.3% in September. Brazil then reports...

Stock Markets EM FX closed on a firm note, though most currencies were down for the entire week. TRY and ZAR outperformed, but we do not think that will be sustained.  FOMC meeting this week will provide some event risk for EM. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, December 06 Source: economist.com - Click to enlarge China China reports November money and loan data this week, but no schedule has been set. China reports...

Summary China eased curbs on coal use for heating in the northern provinces to cope with colder weather. Poland announced a cabinet shuffle. Poland’s lower house approved the controversial judicial reform bill. President Trump announced that the US recognizes Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. Brazil COPOM was more dovish than expected after cutting rates 50 bp to 7.0%. Chile central bank cut its 2017 and 2018 inflation...

Stock Markets EM FX ended the week on a mixed note. US jobs data may refocus market attention on Fed tightening. Most EM inflation readings this week are expected to show easing price pressures, supporting a dovish EM central bank outlook. The major exceptions are Mexico and Turkey, whose central banks may be forced to tighten policy in the coming weeks. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, November 29 Source:...

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. The extreme overbought condition of the US stock market did not correct since the last update and so I will continue to hold a modest amount of cash. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future… Niels Bohr Every time I see that quote I think to myself, “but that...