Tag Archives: emerging markets

Summary The Indonesian cabinet is discussing revisions to the 2017 state budget. The Thai central bank plans to reform some FX rules. South African President Zuma survived the no confidence vote within his own ANC. Brazil’s central bank signaled a slower pace of easing ahead after it cut 100 bp again. Moody’s cut the outlook on Brazil’s Ba2 rating from stable to negative. Stock Markets In the EM equity space as...

Summary The Indonesian cabinet is discussing revisions to the 2017 state budget. The Thai central bank plans to reform some FX rules. South African President Zuma survived the no confidence vote within his own ANC. Brazil’s central bank signaled a slower pace of easing ahead after it cut 100 bp again. Moody’s cut the outlook on Brazil’s Ba2 rating from stable to negative. Stock Markets In the EM equity space as...

The general economic outlook for Mexico is promising, despite the headwind it faces. Credit Suisse's newly established advisory office in Mexico City will allow its private banking clients to receive advice on-site. It also underscores the bank's growth ambitions on the continent. The outlook for...

Stock Markets EM FX closed last week on a mixed note, with markets struggling to find a compelling investment theme. The US jobs data this week could provide some more clarity on Fed policy. We still think markets are still underestimating political risk in the big EM countries, including Brazil (Moody’s outlook moved to negative), Mexico (election in state of Mexico), South Africa (ANC debates Zuma’s fate), and Turkey...

Stock Markets EM FX closed last week on a mixed note, with markets struggling to find a compelling investment theme. The US jobs data this week could provide some more clarity on Fed policy.  We still think markets are still underestimating political risk in the big EM countries, including Brazil (Moody’s outlook moved to negative), Mexico (election in state of Mexico), South Africa (ANC debates Zuma’s fate), and...

Summary Moody’s downgraded China’s rating from Aa3 to A1 with stable outlook. Reports suggest that the PBOC has informed local banks that it is changing the way it sets the daily fix. Moody’s downgraded Hong Kong’s rating to Aa2 from Aa1 with stable outlook. Philippine President Duterte declared martial law on Mindanao island. Egypt’s central bank unexpectedly hiked rates by 200 bp. S&P moved the outlook on...

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are, however, changes within the asset classes. We are reducing the equity allocation and raising the allocation to REITs.  Based on the bond markets there has been little change in the growth and inflation outlook since the last asset allocation update. Based on...

Stock Markets EM FX ended last week on a firm note, shrugging off political risk that consumed markets earlier in the week. With US rates remaining low, the dollar remains under pressure against the majors, and so EM FX is likely to benefit also. Yet we warn investors not to jump back into EM countries that are inherently riskier, such as Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey. We continue to favor Asia in the current...

Summary China’s government approved the creation of a bond link between Hong Kong and the mainland. S&P upgraded Indonesia one notch to investment grade BBB- with stable. Fitch revised the outlook on Vietnam’s BB- rating from stable to positive. Egypt will announce a package of social spending soon. Moody’s changed the outlook on Poland’s A2 rating from negative to stable. Brazil press reported that meat-packing...

Stock Markets EM FX ended last week on a firmer note, helped by lower US rates and softer than expected CPI and retail sales data. Stabilizing commodity prices also helped EM. Yet these supportive conditions seem unlikely to persist, and we remain defensive on EM.   Stock Markets Emerging Markets, May 10 Source: economist.com - Click to enlarge Brazil Brazil will report April tax collections this week, but no...