The ECB has hinted it intends to remain flexible when it comes to the composition of future asset purchases, with a chance that corporate bonds will play a bigger role.Arguably, the most important aspect of last week’s ECB quantitative easing (QE) announcement was that the programme will remain open-ended. As we have long suggested, the pledge to extend asset purchases beyond September 2018 can only be credible if there are enough German Bunds for the ECB to buy. Bund scarcity could be...
Read More »ECB preview: slower, longer, stronger
Recent signals suggest that the ECB is likely to announce next week the extension its asset purchases for nine months, at a reduced pace of EUR30bn. We expect corporate bonds to form a bigger part of total purchases.Recent ECB communication has been remarkably consistent in signalling a ‘slower for longer’ QE extension into 2018. In light of these signals, we expect the ECB to announce at its 26 October meeting that asset purchases will be extended for nine months, until at least September...
Read More »ECB: first (hawkish) move since 2011
The ECB took its first step towards a very slow normalisation of its monetary stance – a very small one, but symbolically important nonetheless.As we expected, the ECB moved to a more neutral stance today by describing the risks to economic activity as “broadly balanced” and by removing its bias to even “lower” policy rates. The symbolic significance of the move should not be underestimated. It is the first time that the balance of risks to growth has been upgraded since August 2011, just...
Read More »ECB on hold, rendez-vous in September
Macroview Further policy stimulus and adjustments to its bond-buying programme remain on the agenda as the ECB strives to measure the impact of current uncertainties The ECB remained on hold at its 21 July policy meeting. The main conclusion to be drawn from the meeting was that more stimulus is on the table for September, when new staff forecasts will be available.The only unexpected bit of news was ECB chairman’s Mario Draghi’s apparent support for the idea of a public backstop for banks...
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