Topics discussed in the report include: Support for a “strong leader” as opposed to checks and balances has increased in many countries. The share of households with flat or falling market incomes during the 2005-14 period has been around 65% in advanced economies, and 97% in Italy. In the preceding decade, it had been negligible. The Eurasia Group’s top ten risks for 2017: Independent America China overreacts A weaker Merkel No reform Technology and the Middle East Central banks get...
Read More »FX Traders Have To (Re)Learn A New Skill
Dear FX traders: forget the dot plot, and prepare to learn a new – or to some forgotten – skill: how to read trade flows. As Bloomberg’s Vincent Cignarella and Andrea Wong point out, currency traders accustomed to analyzing the Fed’s dot plot and monthly U.S. jobs figures to predict the direction of the world’s reserve currency are having to learn, or in some cases re-learn, a largely forgotten ability: how to...
Read More »Frontrunning: February 9
Airlines, Airports to Meet President Amid Travel-Ban Uncertainty (WSJ) Legal battle pits Trump's powers against his words (Reuters) Trump’s Oval Office Tweets Force CEOs to Choose Fight or Flight (BBG) Companies Plow Ahead With Moves to Mexico, Despite Trump’s Pressure (WSJ) Trump’s Labor Pick Loves Burgers, Bikinis, and Free Markets (BBG) NATO allies lock in U.S. support for stand-off with Russia (Reuters) Sessions Takes Reins at Justice Ready to Walk the Line for Trump (BBG) Washington...
Read More »To Best Serve the Nation and the World
L. Rafael Reif, President of MIT, in an open letter to the MIT community: The Executive Order on Friday appeared to me a stunning violation of our deepest American values, the values of a nation of immigrants: fairness, equality, openness, generosity, courage. The Statue of Liberty is the “Mother of Exiles”; how can we slam the door on desperate refugees? Religious liberty is a founding American value; how can our government discriminate against people of any religion? In a nation made...
Read More »The US Dollar Is Now Overvalued Against Almost Every Currency In The World
In September 1986, The Economist weekly newspaper published its first-ever “Big Mac Index”. It was a light-hearted way for the paper to gauge whether foreign currencies are over- or under-valued by comparing the prices of Big Macs around the world. In theory, the price of a Big Mac in Rio de Janeiro should be the same as a Big Mac in Cairo or Toronto. After all, no matter where in the world you buy one, a Big Mac...
Read More »China Says It Is Ready To Assume “World Leadership”, Slams Western Democracy As “Flawed”
Over the weekend China used the Trump inauguration to warn about the perils of democracy, touting the relative stability of the Communist system as President Xi Jinping heads toward a twice-a-decade reshuffle of senior leadership posts. Without directly referencing the new president, China wrote that democracy has reached its limits, and deterioration is the inevitable future of capitalism, according to the...
Read More »Davos (According To Donald Trump)
Bloomberg’s Anne Swardson, Zoe Schneeweiss, and Andre Tartar perfectly summed up the state of play right now during their discussion of the World Economic Forum’s annual get-together: “Never before has the gap between Davos Man and the real world yawned so widely.” As the world’s top executives, financiers, academics, and politicians make their way to Switzerland, Trump – who won’t have an official representative there...
Read More »Gold’s average gains in inauguration years of 15 percent since 1974
– Gold’s average gains in inauguration years of 15% since 1974– First year of new President frequently a time of increased uncertainties and risks– Gold rose 30% in the 12 months after Obama inauguration – Massive political uncertainty – President’s conflict with the CIA– ‘Strong dollar policy’ to end as U.S. has $120 trillion plus debt– Trump inherits Bush and Obama’s humongous debt Gold performs well in inauguration...
Read More »Lagarde Urges Wealth Redistribution To Fight Populism
IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, Italian Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan and Founder, Chairman and Co-CIO of Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio - Click to enlarge As we scoffed oveernight, who better than a handful of semi, and not so semi, billionaires – perplexed by the populist backlash of the past year – to sit down and discuss among each other how a “squeezed and Angry” middle-class should be fixed. And...
Read More »While Davos Elites Address Populism, Just “Eight Men Own Same Wealth As Half The World”
As political and business elite gather at the Swiss ski resort of Davos, a new report is shining light on the shocking reality of the wealth gap between the very rich and poor that is “pull our societies apart.” A report by Oxfam released ahead the World Economic Forum in Davos shows the gap between the ultra-wealthy and the poorest half of the global population is starker than previously thought, with just eight men...
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