Tag Archives: Dollar euro rate

Given a deteriorating global growth outlook and higher trade tensions, we are reducing our bearish stance on the US dollar. However, we believe that most factors suggest the US dollar continues to face downside risks.Despite a more dovish Fed, the US dollar has remained strong since the start of the year (as of 28 May, only the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen had fared better). Weak global economic growth, notably as a result of trade tensions, has favoured the US dollar given its...

The euro has declined further against the dollar but should strengthen over next 12 months The euro fell to a 20-month low against the US dollar following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) March policy meeting, given the revised forward guidance that suggests that the interest rate differential is unlikely to provide much upside to the euro in the next few months. That being said, recent euro area PMI surveys tend to...

The euro has declined further against the dollar but should strengthen over next 12 monthsThe euro fell to a 20-month low against the US dollar following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) March policy meeting, given the revised forward guidance that suggests that the interest rate differential is unlikely to provide much upside to the euro in the next few months.That being said, recent euro area PMI surveys tend to favour a stabilisation of economic activity (after a relentless decline since...

The upcycle in the US dollar that began in 2011 has faded, but further depreciation of the greenback may be limited and there is a good chance of a near-term recovery against the euro.The US dollar index has declined significantly this year, challenging our constructive view on the US dollar. Disappointment regarding potential US tax reform, the decline in US inflation, the significant overvaluation of the greenback and strong economic recovery in the rest of the world all help explain a...