Any nation-state that meets these four requirements is fully exposed to a global loss of faith in its economy, debt, balance of payments and currency. There’s an entire sub-industry in journalism devoted to the idea that China is poised to replace the U.S. as the “global empire” / hegemon. This notion of global empire being something like a baton that gets passed from nation-state to nation-state is seriously...
Read More »FX Daily, July 17: Markets Mark Time, Dollar Consolidates Losses
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.05% to 1.1028 CHF. EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, July 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates After falling to new lows for the year against several major currencies in response to disappointing retail sales and uninspiring CPI before the weekend, the US dollar has begun the new week on a more stable note. It is firmer against nearly all the major...
Read More »FX Daily, April 17: Markets Trying to Stabilize in Holiday-Thin Activity
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, April 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates Financial centers in Europe are closed for the extended Easter holiday. Australian and New Zealand markets were also closed. The drop in US 10-year Treasury yields in early Asia, with a brief push below 2.20%, appears to have kept the dollar under pressure. As the North American market prepares to...
Read More »FX Daily, January 20: Trump Day
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge The Pound has recovered some its losses from early last week following the speech made by Prime Minister Theresa May which covered the Brexit issue. We could see further volatility going into next week though when the Supreme Court judgement is due to be released. Theresa May has already announced that she will...
Read More »FX Daily, October 19: FX After China GDP
Swiss Franc The Swiss Franc has strengthened against the pound as global uncertainty persists in the form of the UK’s Brexit vote and the US Presidential Election. Looking ahead it seems the CHF may soften a little as we learn of the new President, I found it very interesting that yesterday Paddy Power paid out on any bets for Hilary Clinton to become President in the United States. This is a great indication of the...
Read More »FX Daily, July 15: Sterling and Yen Remain Key Drivers in FX
Swiss Franc While the yen remained weak, the other major safe-haven, the Swiss Franc had gains. We often emphasized the main differences: The Swiss have a far higher trade surplus per capita The Swiss government does not do fiscal experiments like helicopter money, the SNB does only the monetary part. While the Swiss monetary stimulus is higher than the Japanese one. The effect of FX interventions is stronger than...
Read More »