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Tag Archives: bonds

No Paradox, Economy to Debt to Assets

It is surely one of the primary reasons why many if not most people have so much trouble accepting the trouble the economy is in. With record high stock prices leading to record levels of household net worth, it seems utterly inconsistent to claim those facts against a US economic depression. Weakness might be more easily believed as some overseas problem, leading to only ideas of decoupling or the US as the “cleanest...

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

Economic Reports Scorecard The economic data released since my last update has been fairly positive but future growth and inflation expectations, as measured by our market indicators, have waned considerably. There is now a distinct divergence between the current data, stocks and bonds. Bond yields, both real and nominal, have fallen recently even as stocks continue their relentless march higher. The incoming, current...

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

Economic Reports Scorecard The economic data since my last update has improved somewhat. It isn’t across the board and it isn’t huge but it must be acknowledged. As usual though there are positives and negatives, just with a slight emphasis on positive right now. Interestingly, the bond market has not responded to these slightly more positive readings with nominal and real yields almost exactly where they were in the...

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As Central Bankers Spin

Posted with permission and written by Tim Taschler, Sprott Global I know that I resemble the old guy in this cartoon, standing by helplessly as I watch central bankers experiment with the global economy. Bubbles are blown, again, in several asset classes. Negative interest rates have become an acceptable concept, as if they are just words and have no real economic meaning. Stock markets trade based on the next set...

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Italian Euro Exit: Why it Might Come in some Years and Why it Will Help the Euro Zone and Italy

Update December 2016: Italians rejected the referendum that seeks to increase power of the prime minister and reduce power of the two chambers parliament. Prime minister Renzi has promised to resign. This opens the door for new elections, in which the anti-euro parties Movimento 5 stelle (5 star movement) and Lega Nord (Northern League) may strengthen. ————————————————————————————— Update December 2013: Bear in mind...

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FX Daily, November 10: US Dollar, Equities, and Commodities Firmer as Reflation Trade Takes Hold

Comment on GBP and CHF by Matt Vassallo My articles About meMy booksFollow on: Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, November 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ). - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF rates spiked by almost two cents during Wednesday’s trading, providing those clients holding Sterling with some of the best rates they’ve seen in the past few weeks. This move came following confirmation that Donald...

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Great Graphic: Stocks and Bonds

Summary: The relationship between the change in Us 10-year yields and the change in the S&P 500 has broken down. The 60-day correlation is negative for the first time since late Q2 2015. It is only the third such period of inverse correlation since the start of 2015. As market participants, we are sensitive to changing inter-market relationships. This Great Graphic, from Bloomberg shows the correlation...

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FX Weekly Preview: Capital Markets in the Week Ahead

Summary: Global bonds and global stocks ended last week on a weak note and this will likely carry into this week’s activity. The Bank of England meets, but the data may be more important. Oil and commodity prices more generally look vulnerable, and this coupled with higher yields sapped the Australian ad Canadian dollar in the second half of last week. The week ahead will likely be shaped by a combination of...

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Rocky Ratings in China

Around the world, central banks continue to cut interest rates and buy bonds to stimulate their sluggish economies. China is no exception to the monetary policy trend, with the People’s Bank of China cutting rates seven times since late 2014. But here’s the twist: Whereas for most corporates, borrowing costs have been falling in lockstep with central bank moves, a recent spike in defaults has left investors in Chinese corporate bonds on edge. At a time when the cost of money has...

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