Tag Archives: Bank of Japan

Between November 1998 and February 1999, Japan’s government bond (JGB) market was utterly decimated. You want to find an historical example of a real bond rout (no caps nor exclamations necessary), take a look at what happened during those three exhilarating (if you were a government official) months. The JGB 10-year yield had dropped to a low of just 77.2 bps during the depths of 1998’s Asian Financial Crisis (or “flu”, so noted for its regional contagious dollar...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.11% to 1.0681 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 29(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The spreading virus that is shutting down large parts of Europe, while the US is reluctant to return to lockdowns and refuses to have a nationwide requirement for masks in public hit risk assets yesterday. The S&P posted its largest decline in four-months yesterday (~3.5%), and...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.11% to 1.0721 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The capital markets lack a clear direction today. This is reflected in narrowly mixed equities, bonds, and currencies. The spreading contagion is giving rise to new economic concerns, among other things, and the UK-EU talks are struggling to resume, while Pelosi-Mnuchin talks in the...

Why are there still outstanding dollar swap balances? It is the middle of September, for cryin’ out loud, and the Federal Reserve reports $52.3 billion remains on its books as of yesterday. Six months after Jay Powell conducted what he called a “flood”, with every financial media outlet reporting as fact this stream of digital dollars into every corner of the world, how can there be anything greater than zero in overseas liquidity swaps? Six months is an eternity....

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.02% to 1.0743 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Profit-taking after the FOMC meeting saw US equities and gold sell-off. The high degree of uncertainty without fresh stimulus did not win investors’ confidence. The Fed signaled rates would likely not be hiked for the next three years, and without additional measures, that appears...

After the Diamond Princess cruise ship docked in Tokyo with tales seemingly spun from some sci-fi disaster movie, all eyes turned to Japan. Cruisers had boarded the vacation vessel in Yokohama on January 20 already knowing that there was something bad going on in China’s Wuhan. The big ship would head out anyway for a fourteen-day tour of Vietnam, Taiwan, and, yes, China. Three days in, news reached the Diamond that the Communists had closed down the affected region....

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.39% to 1.0704 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Shortly after the US stock market opened sharply lower, the Federal Reserve announced that it’s Main Street facility was up and running. US stocks never looked back. After the S&P 500 recouped its full decline, the Fed announced it would begin buying corporate bonds. Up until now,...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.19% to 1.0688 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The swing in the pendulum of market sentiment toward fear from greed began last week and has carried over into today’s activity. Global equities are getting mauled. In the Asia Pacific region, no market was spared as the Nikkei’s 3.5% drop, and South Korea’s 4.7% fall led the way. In...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.32% to 1.0698 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 12(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The nearly three-month rally in risk assets ended with high drama with a stomach-churning almost 6% slide in the S&P 500 yesterday. Follow-through selling was seen in the Asia Pacific region, but most markets recovered from their lows, and although losses were still recorded, the...

So, you’re convinced that low rates are powerful stimulus. You believe, like any good standing Economist, that reduced interest costs can only lead to more credit across-the-board. That with more credit will emerge more economic activity and, better, activity of the inflationary variety. A recovery, in other words. Ceteris paribus. What happens, however, if you also believe you’ve been responsible for bringing rates down all across the curve…and then no recovery....