Tag Archives: 5) Global Macro

UK has been confirmed to have the highest death toll in Europe the dollar is getting more traction Reports suggest Congress is resisting President Trump’s call for a payroll tax cut; ADP private sector jobs data is expected to come in at -21 mln Brazil is expected to cut rates 50 bp; Fitch cut its outlook on Brazil to negative; Chile is expected to keep rates steady Sterling remains under pressure as Brexit talks sour; the EC warned that the future of the eurozone is...

Longtime correspondent Paul B. suggested I re-publish three essays that have renewed relevance. This is the second essay, from July 2008. Thank you, Paul, for the suggestion. I received this timely inquiry from astute reader Paul B.: I’m interested in # 1, while you seem to take into account 300 million people in your writings–would you comment on rubber-meets-the-road impacts and proactive actions we can take to help shield ourselves (and our local communities) from...

By Dara O’Sullivan, Derrick Leonard, and Ilan Solot Covid-19 related measures for restricted markets remain largely unchanged from last week. Sri Lanka and India have extended their lockdown periods, while Kenya and Nigeria continue to face limited liquidity. Please see trading comments below   Sri Lanka: The government announced on May 1 that the current lockdown will remain in place until May 11, when it will be reviewed. The Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) remains...

Longtime correspondent Paul B. suggested I re-publish three essays that have renewed relevance. This is the first essay, from June 2008. Thank you, Paul, for the suggestion. I’m not trying to be difficult, but I can’t help cutting against the grain on topics like surviving the coming bad times when my experience runs counter to the standard received wisdom. A common thread within most discussions of surviving bad times–especially really bad times–runs more or less...

This is how it happens that boats that were once worth tens of thousands of dollars are set adrift by owners who can no longer afford to pay slip fees. The increasing concentration of the ownership of wealth/assets in the top 10% has an under-appreciated consequence: when only the top 10% can afford to buy assets, that unleashes an almost karmic payback for the narrowing of ownership, a.k.a. soaring wealth and income inequality: assets crash. Most of you are aware...

Global equity markets continue to trend higher; the dollar remains under pressure The two-day FOMC meeting ends today; the first look at Q1 US GDP comes out France and Spain laid out plans to reopen; the UK will rely on a contact tracing plan to limit the viral spread Ahead of the ECB meeting Thursday, European policymakers are showing a similar willingness to act as needed Fitch cut Italy by a notch to BBB- with stable outlook; Germany reports April CPI Reports...

Dollar softness this week will take some pressure off of the foreign currencies but it’s too early to sound the all clear.  This piece focuses on how  central banks around the world may be intervening to influence their currencies.  Most of the world, particularly EM, is grappling with supporting weak currencies but a select few are dealing with stronger currencies. This is a very opaque process and so we are simply making our best guesses.  As April reserves data...

By Dara O’Sullivan, Derrick Leonard, and Ilan Solot As the week commences, a few markets such as Sri Lanka and Philippines are extending their lockdown periods while others such as Nigeria and Kenya continue to experience USD liquidity issues. Please see comments below. Sri Lanka: The Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) was expected to resume operations on April 27 but, due to an uptick in Covid-19 cases, the exchange remains closed until May 4. Foreign exchange trading is...

Since superfluous demand was the core driver of most consumer spending, and that demand is in free-fall, what’s the upside of re-opening? The mainstream view assumes everyone will be gripped by an absolutely rabid desire to return to their pre-pandemic frenzy of borrowing and spending and consuming, the more the better. While the urge to believe the Titanic scraping the iceberg will have no consequence and the collision was nothing but a spot of bother is compelling...

The death toll from the virus continues to trend lower in Europe and the US; the dollar remains under some pressure The Fed announced an expansion of its Municipal Liquidity Facility (MLF); regional Fed manufacturing surveys for April continue to roll out; other data will be reported Sweden kept rates and QE steady, as expected; Hungary is expected to stand pat too Oil prices are tumbling again Japan reported soft March jobs data; HKMA stepped up its intervention...