Thursday , November 21 2024
Home / Perspectives Pictet / Brexit logjam persists

Brexit logjam persists

Summary:
It's always darkest before dawn, and dawn is not yet in sight.It was another eventful week in British politics, although there was still no meaningful progress on clearing the way for a smooth Brexit before the crucial deadline of March 2019. While a smooth exit remains our base-case scenario, uncertainty remains sizeable.PM Theresa May postponed the British Parliament vote on her Brexit divorce deal, and vowed to re-open discussions with European Union (EU) partners. However, things are not off to a great start as discussions so far have confirmed that her European counterparts remain reluctant to budge.May survived an internal party leadership contest by 200-117; but the vote also showed a significant minority in the Tory party could challenge May’s divorce deal, even with tweaks, when

Topics:
Team Asset Allocation and Macro Research considers the following as important: , , ,

This could be interesting, too:

Claudio Grass writes Gold climbing from record high to record high: why buy now?

Claudio Grass writes Gold climbing from record high to record high: why buy now?

Claudio Grass writes Gold climbing from record high to record high: why buy now?

Claudio Grass writes The permacrisis strategy: the mortal dangers of our “new normal”

It's always darkest before dawn, and dawn is not yet in sight.

It was another eventful week in British politics, although there was still no meaningful progress on clearing the way for a smooth Brexit before the crucial deadline of March 2019. While a smooth exit remains our base-case scenario, uncertainty remains sizeable.

PM Theresa May postponed the British Parliament vote on her Brexit divorce deal, and vowed to re-open discussions with European Union (EU) partners. However, things are not off to a great start as discussions so far have confirmed that her European counterparts remain reluctant to budge.

May survived an internal party leadership contest by 200-117; but the vote also showed a significant minority in the Tory party could challenge May’s divorce deal, even with tweaks, when it finally arrives before the British Parliament.

If parliamentary gridlock persists, the UK could slide into a ‘no-deal Brexit’ (cliff edge) in March – meaning an abrupt exit from the EU – but we still believe that a majority exists to oppose a slide into such ‘unknown’ territory. In our view, the risk of asking the EU for an extension of the March deadline or cancelling Brexit is rising.

The pound sterling is likely to remain range-bound in the near-term as crucial parliament steps near. A smooth exit or the reduced anxiety about a no-deal Brexit could eventually boost sterling from current levels.

Brexit uncertainty could cap gilts yields for longer as well.

Brexit logjam persists

Team Asset Allocation and Macro Research
“Since 1805 Pictet has remained single-minded in its mission to advise private clients, families and institutions in the art of managing their wealth.” More than 200 years after it was founded, Pictet ranks as one of Switzerland’s leading private banks and is among the most respected asset management specialists in Continental Europe. Even though we now have a worldwide presence and a global perspective, we retain the characteristics that have helped our clients to prosper over two centuries. Do not hesitate to contact Pictet for an investment proposal. Please contact Zurich Office, the Geneva Office or one of 26 other offices world-wide.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *