SNB & CHF

The Bank of Japan surprised everyone may lifting the 10-year yield curve cap to 0.50% from 0.25%.The BOJ also said it would increase its bond purchases to JPY9 trillion (~$68 bln) a month compared to the current JPY7.3 trillion.   BOJ Kuroda, whose term ends next April, insisted that the easy monetary policy stance will continue.   The surprise decision sent ripples across the capital markets.  Japanese stocks slumped, with the Nikkei falling about 2.5%.  Global...

We received a host of economics reports this past week; some good, others not so much. The week started with the Consumer Price Index report coming in better than expected at an increase of just 0.1% from the previous month (7.1% from a year ago), compared with respective estimates of 0.3% and 7.3%. This is great news (and the market responded in kind), as inflation continues to moderate not only here but also in Europe. US import and export prices were also both...

Switzerland plans to enact laws to prevent price manipulation and insider trading in its domestic energy markets. Energy Minister Simonetta Sommaruga unveiled the plans on Friday, saying the reforms are needed to secure Switzerland’s energy security. The proposed reforms would force energy companies to open their books to the energy regulator Elcom to give the authorities early warnings of supply problems. Insider trading and price manipulations are currently...

While many market participants are concerned about rate increases, they appear to be ignoring the largest risk: the potential for a massive liquidity drain in 2023. Even though December is here, central banks’ balance sheets have hardly, if at all, decreased. Rather than real sales, a weaker currency and the price of the accumulated bonds account for the majority of the fall in the balance sheets of the major central banks. In the context of governments deficits that...

Buildings near Kyiv destroyed by a Russian airstrike on December 14. The war in Ukraine is one factor weighing down the Swiss economy. Keystone / Oleg Petrasyuk Growth forecasts for Switzerland have been revised downwards for the current year and 2023 by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute, amid fears of a global recession and the war in Ukraine. The economists also changed their predictions for inflation. The KOF Consensus Forecast expects gross domestic product (GDP)...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially...

Every time the Chinese government says or does something, Western "experts" and observers get that thrill again China is about to re-enter their preferred Keynesian mode. They don't realize - or want to - that Economics textbook has been thrown out of the country, or by who. The who was probably He, and that means the cavalry of "stimulus" won't be arriving just in the nick of global recession time. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter:...

Time to go to the Eurodollar University and get schooled. Check out Lead-Lag Live on all your favorite podcast platforms, and at leadlaglive.buzzsprout.com.

UBS has closed the first tokenized debt transaction for Asia Pacific investors, underlining its commitment to expand regional investment opportunities. UBS AG London branch issued USD 50 million in digital fixed rate security tokens (‘digital securities’) using blockchain technology to a series of high net worth and global family and institutional wealth investors across Hong Kong and Singapore. The US dollar-denominated instruments carry a tenor of 6 months and are...

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