Perspectives Pictet

Data on US consumer spending in July were quite robust, auguring well for consumer spending growth in Q3. Data on US household consumption and income were published today (29 August) by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real personal consumption rose by a solid 0.3% m-o-m in July, slightly above consensus estimates (+0.2%). Previously published data on retail sales were soft, but car sales and output of utilities for July had been quite upbeat, suggesting a healthy reading for overall...

Euro area bank credit flows were pretty strong in July, despite concerns about the impact of the 23 June Brexit referendum and banks’ health. In July, bank credit to euro area non-financial corporations (NFCs) accelerated, to EUR 12bn (adjusted for sales and securitisations) compared with a rise of EUR 8bn in June and EUR 10bn in May. Lending to NFCs seems to be stable, and on a gentle upward trend. On a country-by-country basis, core countries led the increase on loans to NFCs adjusted for...

Published: Thursday August 25 2016According to Olivier Creed, Créateur Parfumeur of The House of Creed, becoming a perfume-maker is not something that can be learnt or invented. You have to have it in your blood, he says – and as the sixth- generation descendant of the founder of the Paris-based perfume house, he should know. He worked with his father James Henry Creed to learn the trade, and his 36-year-old son Erwin has already contributed to the creation of new fragrances in preparation...

Yesterday’s flash purchasing managers index (PMI) surveys showed again a rather resilient picture for the euro area after the UK vote to leave the EU. The euro area composite ‘flash’ PMI index posted a marginal increase from 53.2 in July to 53.3 in August, slightly above consensus expectations (53.1) and reaching a seven month high. The sector breakdown showed that the services sector index increased from 52.9 in July to 53.1 in August, above consensus expectations (52.8). By contrast, the...

Published: Friday August 19 2016Caran d'Ache, Switzerland’s manufacturer of pencils, fine-arts materials and luxury writing instruments, continues to innovate and expand globally under the leadership of a fourth-generation member of the family that runs it‘People write less in everyday life, yet everyone has a pen or pencil on their desk,’ says Carole Hübscher, Chairwoman of the company. ‘A nice pen has become an essential accessory for many men, just like a Swiss watch – a sign of status....

Our model suggests that the Italian government’s strategy for the bad debt problems of the country's banks only will only be credible if economic growth returns Changes in banks’ Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) depend crucially on economic performance, including GDP growth and employment. Put simply, the Italian government’s strategy, or hope, is that even a modest economic recovery leads to a sustained, albeit gradual decline in NPLs and that systemic bank bailouts can be avoided. Moreover,...

Published: Monday August 15 2016With almost 300 years of history, Rémy Martin is one of the world’s leading cognacs, selling 24 million bottles a year to consumers in Europe, North America and Asia. In 1990–91, it joined forces with a much younger premium spirit — the orange-flavoured liqueur first sold by the Cointreau brothers in 1875. The merged Rémy Cointreau group also owns a range of other spirits, including Mount Gay rum, Metaxa brandy and Bruichladdich Scotch whisky.Rémy Martin dates...

The latest data releases from China point to a sluggish start to the second half of 2016, but we are sticking to our 2016 growth forecast of 6.5%. Economic data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics on 12 August remain largely consistent with our expectation of moderating growth momentum in China. Especially noteworthy has been the drop in fixed asset investment (FAI) growth. Going forward, we expect a further slowdown in property investment to be offset by fiscal support for...

Stagnant growth and banks’ festering non-performing loan problems cast a pall over Italy’s prospects ahead of a referendum that could determine the fate of the prime minister Flat real GDP growth in Italy in the second quarter was below consensus expectations of 0.2% (quarter over quarter) and brought to an end five consecutive quarters of improving expansion. Overall, the outlook for Italy remains challenging. Assuming a pick-up in quarterly growth to 0.2% (the average since Q1 2015), the...

[embedded content] Published: Thursday August 11 2016 The world is living in exponential times, according to the Greek-American entrepreneur Peter Diamandis — an era when the pace of technological change is doubling every year or two. Speaking to an audience of 40 wealthy families at The Family Consilium which was convened in Gstaad by Pictet in June 2016, he said that the speed of innovation was making the world’s population better-off, healthier and happier. In this conversation,...