SNB & CHF

We think the US dollar has put in a significant high. However, the near-term technical readings are stretched. The dollar's bounce from November 15 to November 21 met or approached minimum retracement targets, but the momentum indicators did not correct. These conflicting impulses need to be navigated in the days ahead. On balance, we look for a firmer greenback, which we see as corrective. That is the prism through which we look at the price action. At the same...

Two high-frequency economic reports stand out in the week ahead:  The US November employment report and the preliminary eurozone CPI. The Federal Reserve has deftly distanced itself from any one employment report. As a result, it would take a significant miss of the median forecast (Bloomberg survey) to alter market expectations for a 50 bp hike when the FOMC meeting concludes on December 14.Economists are looking for around a 200k increase in US non-farm payrolls...

[Originally published August 13, 2008] It’s been 75 years since the federal government, on the spurious grounds of fighting the Great Depression, ordered the confiscation of all monetary gold from Americans, permitting trivial amounts for ornamental or industrial use. This happens to be one of the episodes Kevin Gutzman and I describe in detail in our new book, Who Killed the Constitution? The Fate of American Liberty from World War I to George W. Bush. From the...

Major, sweeping inversion. WTI contango. In 2018, these warnings happened just prior to the Fed being forced out of its rate hike plans for 2019 because the economy and markets were more and more messed up. Before those, however, there was another huge shakeup...from China. All the same numbers are coming up in Nov '22, including the latest today...from China. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university...

In an earlier article, I explained that the collapse in the long-dated UK government bond (or gilts) market on September 28 that followed the ill-fated Kwarteng “mini budget” of a few days earlier had exposed a hitherto underappreciated problem: UK pension schemes were massively exposed to changes in long-dated gilts rates. The week after the mini budget, the gilts market became very unsettled. To quote the Financial Times: Huge shifts in bond prices were leaving...

Austrian crypto platform Bitpanda has received a full operating license from the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority or BaFin for the custody and proprietary trading of crypto assets. Bitpanda claims to be the first European retail investment platform to obtain the license which was introduced by BaFin in 2020, allowing it to actively market and offer services in the German market. Founded in 2014, Bitpanda now has nearly four million investors on its...

Markets and curves have been more and more strenuously pricing only bad/worsening scenarios, with the data coming behind and confirming the predictions. The US and world economy had reached a critical threshold, and today it appears as if both breached it markets and data. Now what? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net...

Overview: The capital markets are quiet today with Japan on holiday and the US on holiday tomorrow. Asia Pacific equities were mostly firmer after yesterday’s rally on Wall Street. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is about 0.25% higher and at its best level in three months. US futures are steady to slightly higher. Benchmark 10-year yields are little changed. The dollar is narrowly mixed against the major currencies, with Scandis leading the way. Sweden is expected to raise rates...

Curves all over the place aren't pricing normalcy or a soft landing, they're hedged for global money and macro conditions that will maybe inevitably lead to more QEs. Reviewing what that has meant as well as what we can learn about it from recent developments in Japan. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays:...

Overview: The US dollar is trading with a somewhat heavier bias after bouncing higher yesterday. All the G10 currencies are higher, led by the New Zealand dollar, where the central bank is expected to hike first thing tomorrow. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer. Those that are not, like the South Korean won and Mexican peso, are nursing minor losses. The surge in Covid cases weighed on Chinese shares that trade in Hong Kong, while the CSI 300 posted...