SNB & CHF

03.12.2018 – Turnover in the retail sector rose by 1.2% in nominal terms in October 2018 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 1.9% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays rose by 0.8% in October 2018 compared with the previous year....

Third quarter Swiss GDP figures released yesterday show Switzerland’s economy shrank compared to the quarter before. ©-Tobias-Arhelger-_-Dreamstime.com_ - Click to enlarge GDP for the quarter to September was down by 0.2% compared to the quarter before, ending an 18-month run of quarterly growth. The fall in Swiss GDP follows a quarterly slowdown across the rest of Europe, in Germany in particular. A fall in the output...

Overview: There is an eerie calm in the capital markets today as the G20 meeting gets underway. There is much uncertainty, and the event calendar is chock full next week, with the Brexit debate getting underway in the UK Parliament, the CDU picks a new leader to replace Merkel, possible partial US government closure, Powell’s testimony before Congress, OPEC+ meeting, and US employment data. In Asia, the rise of Japanese...

The fact that lies and cover stories are now the official norm only makes us love our servitude with greater devotion. We can summarize the current era in one sentence: truth is what we hide, self-serving cover stories are what we sell. Jean-Claude Juncker’s famous quote captures the essence of the era: “When it becomes serious, you have to lie.” And when does it become serious? When the hidden facts of the matter might...

I was on Fox Business today. Stuart Varney introduced me by asking me about my forecast for a Santa Claus rally–a year-end recovery in equities. From a technical perspective, I liked the fact that the S&P 500 successfully retested last month’s lows last week. I liked that the price action made last Friday’s price action into an island bottom, with a gap lower opening followed by Monday’s gap higher opening. In terms...

This systemic vulnerability is largely invisible, and so the inevitable contagion will surprise most observers and participants. The conventional definition of a Bear is someone who expects stocks to decline. For those of us who are bearish on fake fixes, that definition doesn’t apply: we aren’t making guesses about future market gyrations (rip-your-face-off rallies, dizziness-inducing drops, boring melt-ups, etc.),...

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The softer than expected PCE deflator today plays into the dovish market mood. There may be little that can resist it until next Friday’s employment data, which should be another robust report with hourly earnings holding above 3% year-over-year. Last November, average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%. As this drops out of the year-over-year comparison, even a healthy bounce back from the 0.2% drop skewed by the hurricane...

A productive national Strategy would systemically decentralize power and capital rather than concentrate both in the hands of a self-serving elite. If you ask America’s well-paid punditry to define America’s National Strategy, you’ll most likely get the UNESCO version: America’s national strategy is to support a Liberal Global Order (LGO) of global cooperation on the environment, trade, etc. and the encouragement of...

- Click to enlarge Over the last 4 weeks the pound has continued its decline against the Swiss Franc which is no surprise. Global events including Brexit, Italian debt problems and Trade wars are prompting investors to sell off their risky currencies and invest in safe havens such as the Swiss Franc. Since the start of the month the GBP/CHF exchange rate has dropped from 1.3160 and is currently trades at 1.2685....