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Greg Michalowski



Articles by Greg Michalowski

SNB’s Jordan: Monetary policy is is still expansionary

13 days ago

SNB’s Jordan, who has been chatting more in the NY session at least of late, is no the wires saying:
monetary policy is a still expansionary
we have most likely to adjust monetary policy again
inflation is very thorny and there is still a risk that inflation will rise further
inflation rate is above our target now.
Expect it to be above our target if we don’t take that into account
central banks around the world are now in a tightening cycle

Yesterday Jordan said:
He sees weaker growth in 2023 than this year.
SNB still has credibility that inflation will moderate
Inflation has broadened
Sees limited 2nd round wage effects in Switzerland
There is a great probablility that SNB will need to further tighten monetary policy.
Nominal appreciation of the franc helps

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SNBs Jordan: IN 2023, sees Swiss growth weaker than this year. USDCHF trades near lows.

13 days ago

SNB’s Jordan is on the wires saying that:
He sees weaker growth in 2023 than this year.
SNB still has credibility that inflation will moderate
Inflation has broadened
Sees limited 2nd round wage effects in Switzerland
There is a great probablility that SNB will need to further tighten monetary policy.
Nominal appreciation of the franc helps guard against inflation
The SNB stands ready to BUY OR SELL the keep the franc fx rate appropriate to steer inflation to target level
May hike in December but the decision will be data dependent
THe USDCHF fell sharply last week, and in the process fell below the 100/200 day MAs, swing areas (see yellow areas in the chart above) and an upward sloping trend line (see green numbered circles).
The last swing area broken was

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SNB’s Jordan: Central Bank Independence is crucial to fight inflation effectively

October 12, 2022

SNB Jordan is on the wires speaks in general terms:
Central bank independence is crucial to fight inflation effectively
central banks could face political pressures to slow down or postpone interest rate hikes to tackle inflation
central banks more politically vulnerable as inflation rises
Comments outline reasons why central banks in general need to remain independent. Will be on alert for any comments on monetary policy.
 

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Tags: central-banks,Featured,newsletter

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BOC’s Rogers: We are not where we were in July, but a long way from where we need to be

September 10, 2022

Bank of Canada’s Senior Deputy Gov. Carolyn Rogers:
We are not where we were in July, but we are a long way from where we need to be
Bank has seen early signs monetary policy is working
the bank still sees a path to a stop to soft landing, that’s still our objective
neutral territory is a range, it’s an estimate, there is no magic formula
There has been a lot of central banks speak from the Swiss National Bank to the Federal Reserve to the ECB, and now additional comments from Bank of Canada. Overall, the currencies are somewhat muted in the response.

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Tags: central-banks,Featured,newsletter

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More from SNB’s Jordan: No comment on currency invention. We don’t rule anything out

September 9, 2022

Looks at series of models to gauge Swiss francs value; market has to live with some volatility
no comment on currency intervention. We don’t rule anything out
monetary policy cannot influence explosion and prices in case of a severe shortage
the longer inflation last, the greater the risk of a 2nd round of facts having a negative impact
central banks need to watch out that fiscal policy does not dictate monetary policy
Meanwhile SNB’s Maechler is now joining in saying:
inflation is back and we are reminded of negative power of inflation
we are seeing the 1st data point where inflation seems to be stabilizing, too early to call trend
central bankers need to tame inflation ideally without creating a recession
we live in a world that is very fragile, that is why it

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SNB’s Jordan: We must ensure price stability over medium-term

September 9, 2022

SNB’s Jordan is on the wires after the ECB hike rates by 75 basis points today:
ECB 75 basis point rate hike not fully surprising
We must ensure price stability over medium-term
Gas or power stoppages would have devastating impact on economy’s
Exchange rates play a role in inflation , when big central banks act this helps us
You should not be surprised that SNB acts independently
It is positive for SNB of major central banks normalize
It would not create difficulty if the ECB takes 100 basis point hikes
S&P decides monetary policy and regular meetings unless under severe time pressure
no decision yet on what to decide at September 22 policy meeting
next step depends on analysis underway, need to gauge inflationary pressure, exchange rate
uncertainty about

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SNB’s Zurbruegg: It is not roll of monetary policy to cure risks to financial system

March 30, 2022

Vulnerabilities have increased and Swiss real estate market
Swiss apartments overvalued by 10% to 35%
SNB continues to monitor developments in real estate market
It is not roll of monetary policy to curb risk to financial system
The  USDCHF  is trading back below its 100 hour moving average at 0.93129 and its 200 hour moving average at 0.93304.
However at the low today, the pair did find support against what has been a swing area between 0.9293 and 0.92964.
The price did move below that swing area last Friday, but rebounded and closed back above the level. On Monday, the low price stalled against the level and pushed higher reestablishing the area as support.
The high price today did find resistance against another swing area this time at the highs between

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SNB Jordan: Strong Swiss Franc limits Swiss inflation

February 1, 2022

SNBs Jordan
Strong CHF limits swiss inflation
See no sign swiss wage price cycle
Inflation stubbornly above 2% would lead to policy tightening
Difficult to say whether global rates have turned, much still depend on economic development

CHF has remained stable in real terms
Asked about real estate prices, Jordan says monetary policy aims primarily at price stability
The SNB is not investing in crypto currencies
The USDCHF has moved to new session lows (higher CHF) and in the process has moved below the 100 hour MA at 0.92677.
The 38.2% at 0.9246 is the next target on the downside. Stay below the 100 hour MA is now a close risk for the sellers.

USDCHF falls below the 100 hour MA

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