Tag Archives: US wage growth

Slowdown in job creation and uptick in unemployment should not deter Fed from raising rates in December. Non-farm payrolls in the US rose by 156,000 month-on-month (m-o-m) in September, below consensus expectations, while nonfarm payrolls in July and August taken together were 7,000 lower than previous estimates. All in all, this was a slightly disappointing report, in contrast with a string of strong US economic indicators published in recent days, including the ISM indices for...

A soft monthly payroll number conceals health of the US jobs market, but a Fed rate hike may not come until December. Non-farm payroll employment rose by a modest 151,000 month on month (m-o-m) in August, below consensus expectations. Moreover, the unemployment rate remained unchanged, wage increases were soft, and the average work week declined surprisingly. However, the disappointing August nonfarm payroll number followed solid numbers in June and July. Overall, job creation has been a...

Modest wage pressures and low inflation expectations mean we see no reason to change our forecast of a single Fed rate increase this year, probably in December The US Employment Cost Index increased by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and by 2.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, in line with expectations.Potential domestic wage pressures in the US remain hard to analyse. The unemployment rate has fallen sharply, and most other labour market indicators have improved. Although there is much...

Macroview Weak job creation figures reinforce our scenario that the Fed will likely wait until September to act Read full report here The May US employment report released on 3 June was clearly weak. Job creation surprised heavily on the downside (with downward revisions for the previous two months), and the unemployment rate fell, but for ‘bad’ reasons (a fall in the participation rate). Moreover, the pace of wage increases year over year did not pick up further and the proxy for...