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Pictet Wealth Management's latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.Asset AllocationWe remain neutral on global equities overall, seeing relatively limited potential for developed market stocks in particular as earnings growth declines. We favour companies with pricing power as well as measurable growth drivers and low leverage.We have moved from underweight to neutral in US Treasuries, as the rise in yields slows. But we have shifted from a neutral to underweight...

The CIO office’s view of the week ahead.As expected, the US and Chinese presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping met to discuss trade alongside the G20 summit in Buenos Aires. For now, a tentative truce has been agreed, with Trump calling off further tariff rises in January. On its side, China will purchase an unspecified amount of goods from the US in order to reduce the trade deficit between the two countries. In the coming months however, further rounds of tricky discussions between the two...

While a December rate hike is on the cards, comments from the central bank are raising questions about when the Fed will pause its rate-hiking cycle.The Federal Reserve (Fed) has been sending dovish signals in recent days: The previous exuberantly optimistic tone about the US growth has been pared down, as some pockets of data have softened, notably housing.Meanwhile, there is renewed debate about the landing zone of the current monetary tightening. Some Fed members want to change the...

Vor einem Monat habe ich hier an dieser Stelle über das System des Gerichtshofs der EU geschrieben. Warum fallen dessen Urteile immer so vorteilhaft für die EU und ihre Institutionen aus? Besonders auffällig erschien mir hier die Rechtssprechung zur Politik der EZB zu sein. Das Bundesverfassungsgericht in Karlsruhe hatte in seinem Vorlagebeschluss aus August 2017 noch „gewichtige Gründe“ angeführt, wonach das Anleiheaufkaufprogramm der...

SUMMARY The Euro area’s fiscal stance will turn expansionary in 2019. Among the five biggest economies, this shift mainly reflects significant fiscal loosening in Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. France and Spain plan modest fiscal tightening, but less that what the European Commission (EC) demanded. In Italy, the government budget plan represents a significant deviation from the EU’s fiscal rules. The outcome of arm...

Modest fiscal easing could help counter mounting external risks and slowing growth indicators.Euro area member states have all submitted their 2019 Draft Budgetary Plans (DBP) to the European Commission (EC) by now. These show that, collectively and based on EU Commission’s autumn forecasts, the euro area’s fiscal stance1 will turn supportive in 2019, although it varies significantly from one country to the next.Germany, Italy and the Netherlands are planning fiscal expansions, but Spain,...

Was haben der Weltspartag und die Cryptowährung Bitcoin miteinander zu tun? Auf den ersten Blick eigentlich nichts. Bitcoins kann man nur schlecht in eine Spardose legen, allenfalls in ein Wallet auf dem Smartphone. Cryptowährungen eignen sich aber auch nicht für die klassische Vermögensbildung, mit der man Kindern das Sparen beibringt. Auf den zweiten Blick gibt es aber durchaus Gemeinsamkeiten. So fand in dieser Woche nicht nur der...

There has been a lot of media coverage recently about the re-emergence of central bank gold buying and the overall larger quantity of gold than central banks as a group have been buying recently compared to previous years. For example, according to the World Gold Council’s Gold Demand Trends for Q3 2018, net purchases of gold by central banks in the third quarter of this year were 22% higher than Q3 2017, and the...

Pictet Wealth Management's latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.Asset AllocationWhile the recent sell-off might have been overdone in view of fundamentals that remain basically sound, market gyrations and our expectation of further volatility mean we remain neutral equities overall. The current environment favours active management and a tactical allocation approach, exemplified by the partial sale of equity options we acquired to protect portfolios in early...

Investment and consumption remain the twin engines of US growth.The first estimate for Q3 GDP (3.5% quarter-on-quarter annualised) confirmed that the US business cycle remains solid. Whereas consumption was stronger than in previous quarters, investment was softer than in Q3—but the underlying story is that solid investment continues to support US growth.This data confirms our annual GDP forecast of 3.0%. This remains above the post-financial crisis average growth rate of 2.3%, and above the...