Tag Archives: Swiss and European Macro

The US is about to enact significant corporate tax cuts, and could therefore edge closer to the number 1 spot in the World Economic Forum’s ranking – currently held by Switzerland. The US is about to enact significant corporate tax cuts, that will see the federal statutory corporate tax rate drop to 21%, from 35%, starting in January (see our latest note ‘US tax cuts update – 19 December 2017’). This will significantly...

Bern, 20.12.2017 – On 20 December the Federal Council decided to unilaterally remove tariffs on imported industrial goods. Tariffs will also be reduced on selected agricultural goods not produced in Switzerland. Furthermore, the government wants to apply the Cassis de Dijon principle more widely by reducing the number of exceptions to it. These measures should lead to considerable savings of around CHF 900 million for...

At its December meeting, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) left its accommodative monetary policy unchanged. More specifically, the SNB maintained the target range for the three-month Libor at between – 1.25% and-0.25% and the interest rate on sight deposits at a record low of – 0.75%. The SNB also reiterated its commitment to intervene in the foreign exchange market if needed, taking into account the “overall currency...

During an uneventful ECB press conference on Thursday, attention centred on the new staff projections. The headline projections were in line with expectations, albeit slightly higher on GDP growth and lower on inflation. The key word was “confidence” – in a strong expansion leading to a “significant” reduction in economic slack, as well as in the ECB’s capacity to meet its mandate. That said, ECB President Mario Draghi...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade...

Momentum in the euro area picked up further at the end of the year. The flash composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) increased to 58.0 in December, from 57.5 in November, above consensus expectations (57.2). The improvement was once again broad-based across sectors. Both the manufacturing (+0.5 to 60.6) and services (+0.3 to 56.5) indices improved in December, with the former reaching its highest level since the...

Economic forecasts by the Federal Government’s Expert Group – Winter 2017/2018* The Federal Government’s Expert Group expects the Swiss economy to make a speedy recovery over the next few quarters. While only moderate GDP growth of 1.0% is anticipated in 2017 due to a weak first half of the year, the forecast for GDP growth in 2018 is strong at 2.3% in the course of the global economic upturn. A solid 1.9% growth is...

The November employment report showed another ‘Goldilocks’ set of conditions for investors: employment growth remained firm, especially in cyclical sectors like manufacturing and construction. At the same time, wage growth stayed soft – which means the Federal Reserve is unlikely to shift its current prudent communication on interest -rate hikes (although it is still very likely to hike 25bps on 13 December)....

The ECB’s meeting on 14 December would be a non-event if it were not for two specific points to make clear before the Christmas break – the staff forecasts for inflation, and the not-so-constructive ambiguity on QE horizon. We expect no major surprise from the new staff projections, reflecting the ECB’s cautiously upbeat tone. Euro area real GDP growth forecasts will likely be revised higher for the fifth...

The Federal Reserve is probably looking back at 2017 with satisfaction. After on the rate rise expected on 13 December, it will have pushed through the three rate hikes it signalled earlier in the year. For once, it has not under-delivered. Meanwhile, the gradual, ‘passive’ decline in the Fed’s balance sheet has been mostly ignored by markets. In fact, broader financial conditions have eased this year despite the...