Tag Archives: Pictet Macro Analysis

ECB officials have hinted at policy measures aimed at reducing the cost of negative rates for the banking sector, including a tiered system of bank reserves. Although back in 2016 the European Central Bank (ECB) ruled out tiering of bank reserves to mitigate the side effects of negative rates, the situation has since changed, and it could be implemented eventually if policy rates were to remain negative into 2020....

Industrial gauges rebound on seansonality as well as policy easing. Chinese PMI readings moved back into expansion territory in March. The official Chinese manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5, up from 49.2 in February, and beating the Bloomberg consensus of 49.6, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8, also up from 49.9 in February and beating the consensus expectation of 50.0. Details of the PMI survey report...

Increased US export capacity would probably force OPEC+ to change its current tactics. After last year’s collapse, oil prices have found support since the beginning of this year for several reasons. At this stage, the main question is whether the recent surge in prices is sustainable or whether we will see renewed oil price volatility, with the possibility of a repeat of 2018. The recent release of the International...

European Parliament elections, to be held between 23 and 26 of May, will be a key political event in Europe. However, we expect limited short-term impact, given the European Parliament’s limited ability to set Brussels’ agenda. European Parliament (EP) elections will be a key political event in Europe, a form of ‘midterm election’ in which the electorates can state their approval or disapproval of their...

German growth may remain subdued in H1 2019, before picking up somewhat in H2 2019 as some near-term risks dissipate. Germany’s leading indicator, the Ifo index, rose in March, driven by an increase in both sub-components: current assessment and expectations. The Ifo index differs in make-up from Markit’s purchasing manager indexes, but at the sector level, the story is the same: the more domestically driven services...

After an eventful week in parliament, the Brexit ball is set to keep rolling as MPs move to extend the 29 March deadline. The British Parliament concluded a series of votes on Brexit this week with an intention to extend the 29 March Brexit deadline. What remains unclear at this point is whether the UK will seek a short (two months) or a longer extension (two years). It is also not clear what this extension would be...

The euro has declined further against the dollar but should strengthen over next 12 months The euro fell to a 20-month low against the US dollar following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) March policy meeting, given the revised forward guidance that suggests that the interest rate differential is unlikely to provide much upside to the euro in the next few months. That being said, recent euro area PMI surveys tend to...

Following the changes to its forward guidance, we have revised our forecast for ECB policy rates. Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a new long-term refinancing package for banks (called TLTRO-III) and made clear that interest rates would not be raised this year. While these measures were expected, they have come earlier than we thought. We were also taken aback by the extent of the downside revisions...

The ECB’s decision on (T)LTRO will matter most to the euro area periphery banks who have been the biggest consumers of current TLTROs. Considering the weakness in most economic indicators the ECB should maintain an adequate degree of monetary accommodation. This will likely require delivering another longer-term refinancing operation (LTRO, targeted or not) to avoid any tightening in liquidity and credit conditions. We...

Some recent factors supporting gold are fading. However, while gold could sag in the short term, medium-term prospects look better. Last year ended on a very strong note for gold demand, with a significant increase in jewellery and investment demand in the fourth quarter (see chart), leading to strong price performance (7.7% in US dollar terms in Q4). There was also a sharp increase in central bank demand in 2018,...