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The US dollar turned in a mixed performance last week.  Firmer oil and commodity prices more generally helped lift the Australian and Canadian dollars, and many emerging market currencies.  These currencies initially extended their  gains ahead of the weekend in response to the Bank of Japan's surprise 20 bp cut on some excess reserves ( to -10 bp). The yen lost 2.25% on the week, its biggest weekly decline since the BOJ's surprise expansion of its Qualitative and Quantitative Easing in...

1) Korea’s Financial Services Commission will introduce a so-called “omnibus account” for foreigners investing in local stocks2) Malaysian Attorney General Apandi Ali closed the investigation into transfers of foreign money into Prime Minister Najib Razak’s personal bank accounts 3) The South African Reserve Bank increased the pace of its tightening 4) The Egyptian central bank eased restrictions on dollar cash deposits 5) The Turkish central bank raised its 2016 and 2107 inflation...

It is critical for an investor to be very vigilant during the earnings season, which already began on January 11 with Alcoa (AA) reporting its results. Not only do companies report their financials, but they also make other significant announcements, such as either raising or lowering their earnings guidance for the coming months. Given the importance of this information, it is no surprise that a company’s stock can often soar or plunge on these disclosures. Therefore, investors need to be...

The Bank of Japan surprised the market.  It did not expand its asset purchase plan, which was the main focus of many market participants, including ourselves.  Instead, following a rash of disappointing data, the BOJ introduced negative interest rates on some excess reserves and vowed to do more if necessary.   Today's action, like the expected decision in October 2014 to increase what Japan calls Quantitative and Qualitative Easing was on a 5-4 vote.  It has sent the yen and Japanese...

We had been tracking the budding scandal that implicated the office of Japan's Economic Minister Amari.  We had expressed our concern earlier this week that the scandal could sap Amari's office strength and be a distraction.  However, the situation unraveled quicker than we anticipated and Amari resigned earlier today.   He is the fourth ministerial resignation but by far the most important one to resign.  Abe's first term had been marred by scandals and they arguably contributed to his...

There is a mixed tone in the global capital markets today.  Asian shares were mixed with declines in the Nikkei (-.07%) and Shanghai (-2.9%) being offset by modest gains elsewhere.  European bourses are also mixed and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off slightly.  European bonds benchmark bond yields are lower though US yields are firmer.   The US dollar has a softer tone though its losses are largely concentrated in against the Antipodean currencies and the Canadian dollar.  The New Zealand...

We have consistently been making the contrarian call for a falling silver price and a rising gold to silver ratio for years. This ratio has risen a lot during this time. So are we ready to change our call yet? Review of Our Call in 2015 Let’s hold ourselves accountable for what we said last year in our Outlook 2015: “There is currently no evidence that scarcity is rising, and thus gold should shoot da moon.” Our bottom line recommendation was, “To those looking to trade, at the moment this...

I was a guest on "What'd You Miss" on Bloomberg TV this afternoon, shortly after the markets closed.  Alix Steel, Joe Weisenthal, and Scarlet Fu, and I discussed two main issues.    Click here to see the seven minute clip.   The first was the EU's approval, finally, of the establishment of a "bad bank" in Italy.  It will ostensibly help  address the bad loan problem that has been one of the factors that have prevented a stronger recovery in the third largest country in the euro area.   I...

The Federal Reserve tweaked its economic assessment, but generally kept the underlying message the same.  It sees slack in the labor market continuing to be absorbed and believes the economic conditions warrant a gradual increase in rates.  The market was looking for a more dovish statement, but the message is little changed from December.   The Fed continues to see the decline in oil prices as having a transitory impact on inflation. It also maintained the decline in import prices will...

For at least a couple of years before the Great Financial Crisis, policymakers often cautioned that investors were mispricing risk.  Through the crisis, investors became painfully aware of many risks, including counterparty risk and reputation risk.  Now many observers are highlighting a new risk, what they call the credibility of central banks.   The issue is that many central banks are nowhere close to reaching their inflation targets.  ECB President Draghi seems to agree.  The ECB has...