The IMF reports the most authoritative currency allocation of global reserves at the end of every quarter with a quarter delay. Invariably, an economist, strategist, or journalist is inspired to write why some data nugget confirms the demise of the dollar as the dominant currency. Given the unorthodox US President, his criticism of Fed policy, and desire for a weaker dollar, the protectionism, and trillion-dollar...
Read More »FX Daily, September 28: Dollar Remains Firm While Italy is Punished
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.49% at 1.1317 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 28(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar’s post-Fed gains have been extended, though the upside momentum appears to be stalling. Japan’s Nikkei advanced 1.35% on the back of the yen’s declines and reached its highest level since 1991. Chinese shares (A and H)...
Read More »FX Daily, September 26: The Dollar Index has Fallen Four of the Five Times the FOMC met this Year
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.13% at 1.1373 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 26(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is trading with a softer bias in tight ranges. The euro and sterling have been confined to yesterday’s ranges, while the greenback briefly traded above JPY113.00 for the first time in two months. The South African rand and Turkish...
Read More »FX Daily, September 25: Greenback Remains at the Fulcrum
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.35% at 1.137 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 25(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The major currencies are mixed in quiet turnover. Most of the European currencies are firmer, while the dollar-bloc currencies, yen and Swiss franc are softer. Emerging market currencies are steady to higher, though there are a few...
Read More »FX Daily, September 20: The Mixed Performance Makes it Difficult to Talk about The Dollar
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.40% at 1.1244 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The euro poked through $1.18 for the first time since the June ECB meeting. There is an option for about 740 mln euros that expires there today and another at $1.1775 for 890 mln euros. That June high was near $1.1850, which was a five-high. If...
Read More »FX Daily, September 19: Dollar Trades Heavily as Emerging Markets Follow China
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.46% at 1.1303 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 19(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The dollar initially extended its gains against the yen, reaching JPY112.45 before some profit-taking was seen. There is a $1.7 bln option at JPY112 that expires today. It looks safe today after yesterday’s big outside up session-where the...
Read More »Dollar Slips, though Emerging Markets Trade Heavily
The US dollar is beginning the new week on a soft note, as China threatens not to accept the invitation for trade talks in Washington if the US imposes new tariffs on $200 bln of its goods, which the Wall Street Journal reports could come as early as today. Meanwhile, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is giving back half of the 2.5% rally seen in the second half of last week. The Turkish lira is leading the emerging...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: Dollar Pullbacks Remain Shallow as Rate Differentials Widen
The trajectory of monetary policy in the US and Europe has been fairly clear. There is practically no doubt that the Fed will hike rates on September 26. Despite softer than expected PPI and CPI figures, the market has become more confident of another move in December. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet unwind reaches its maximum velocity of $50 bln a month in Q4. Eurozone It is also understood that ECB will reduce...
Read More »FX Daily, September 14: Dollar Losses Extended
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.04% at 1.1277 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The dollar traded above JPY112 in early Asia, for the first time since early August but it could not take out the high recorded then (~JPY112.10) and has come off a bit in Europe. There is a $493 mln option struck at JPY112 that will expire...
Read More »FX Daily, September 13: Vulnerable To Disappointment
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.27% at 1.1312 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 13(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The euro has fallen on ECB meeting days this year and the last two meetings in 2017. The euro is trading in the upper end of the $1.1525-$1.1650 trading range. The intraday technicals suggest that the $1.1600 area may hold until at least the...
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