US equities and the dollar appear to be moving higher together. The greenback is near its best level this year against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The Chinese yuan is not an exception to this generalization. At the same time, the S&P 500 is at its best levels since the downdraft February, and the NASDAQ set a new record high earlier in the week. Many investors and observers speculate about the...
Read More »FX Daily, July 20: Dollar Consolidates after Trump Wades In
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.19% to 1.1651 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is little changed but mostly softer as the week draws to a close. The market is digesting the implications of yesterday’s comments by President Trump about interest rates and foreign exchange, and without fresh economic data, are...
Read More »FX Daily, July 19: Greenback Extends Gains
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.03% to 1.1625 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 19(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is extending its recent gains against most of the world’s currencies. We continue to see the most compelling case for the macro driver being the diverging policy mixes. There are also more immediate factors too. The surprisingly...
Read More »FX Daily, July 18: Greenback Extends Gains-For Now
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.21% to 1.1635 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 18(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is at its best level here in July against the Canadian dollar. The CAD1.3265 area corresponds to a 61.8% retracement of the leg down in late June from almost CAD1.3390 to the recent low near CAD1.3065. The Australian dollar has...
Read More »FX Daily, July 17: Dollar on Back Foot Ahead of Powell
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.21% to 1.1645 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar eased in Asia session and the European morning. The greenback had appeared technically vulnerable, and the economic news stream is light. Sterling, unlike most of the other major currencies, remains within yesterday’s range....
Read More »Great Graphic: Two-year Rate Differentials
Given that some of the retail sales that were expected in June were actually booked in May is unlikely to lead to a large revision of expectations for Q2 US GDP, the first estimate of which is due in 11 days. Before the data, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now projects the world’s biggest economy expanded at an annualized pace of 3.9% in Q2. If true, it would be the strongest quarterly expansion since Q3 14, when the economy...
Read More »FX Daily, July 16: Dollar Softens a Little as Market Awaits Developments
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.05% to 1.1683 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is slightly softer against most of the major currencies but is in narrow ranges ahead of today’s key events, which include US retail sales and the debate in the UK parliament over Brexit. The yen is the main exception. The local...
Read More »Great Graphic: Two Stories for Two Trend Lines
The Dollar Index made a marginal new high for the year at the end of June a touch below 95.55. It fell through the start of this week when it reached nearly 93.70. With the earlier gains, the Dollar Index briefly traded above the 61.8% retracement of the pullback (~94.85). A move now below 94.20 would be disappointing. The Dollar Index is not a trade-weighted. It is too concentrated in Europe and does not include two...
Read More »FX Daily, July 13: Trump Trips Sterling, but Greenback Enjoys Broad Gains
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.01% to 1.1698 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 13(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Sterling’s 0.6% loss (@ ~$1.3120) is co-leading the downside in the firm US dollar environment, having to share that role with the New Zealand dollar today, where a weaker manufacturing PMI (52.8 from 54.4) is taking a toll. Both sterling and...
Read More »FX Daily, July 11: Escalating Trade Tensions Set Tone for Capital Markets
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.06% to 1.1639 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 11(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US took the first step in making good its threat to put a 10% tariff on $200 bln of Chinese goods in response to the PRC retaliating for the 25% tariff on $34 bln of its exports. The US provided a list of products that will get the new...
Read More »